Tag Archives: wnba playoffs

WNBA Today, 09/29/2012: Harding leads Dream to a steal; Lynx hold on by their claws

You often hear athletes saying that it’s a whole new season heading into the playoffs. Or that everyone starts over at 0-0. While true, there’s still the basic problem that the best predictor of the future is often the past. Sometimes you don’t have to look very far to find a reason to say “we really should’ve seen this coming”.

The Atlanta Dream went into Indiana last night for Game 1 of their playoff series with history on their side. The Fever had the better regular season in 2012, but Atlanta have reached the WNBA Finals in both the last two years from low seeds and without home-court advantage. They’d shown the ability to step up when the games really matter, including when they beat Indiana in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals.

On the bright side for Indiana, their starting backcourt of Briann January and Shavonte Zellous were both passed fit to play, after missing the final games of the season due to concussion symptoms. They took their places in the regular Fever starting lineup, while Atlanta also had their standard group. This is the playoffs – any minor injuries players are carrying are pushed to the wayside due to the importance of the games.

It was all Atlanta for the vast majority of the first half. Indiana had too many unnecessary turnovers, either with dumb passes in transition or entry passes that Sancho Lyttle quickly stepped in front of to poke away. The Fever needed to be more aware of Lyttle, who’s been pulling that move for years. You can’t make the same passes when she’s the defender involved that you might force against other players. She already had 4 steals after barely 11 minutes of play.

While the turnovers would typically ignite Atlanta’s running game and take over the contest via fastbreaks, the Dream weren’t just dominating in transition. They were the more effective team in half court sets during the first half, repeatedly finding Erika de Souza under the hoop in the early minutes, and then finishing plays more consistently as the game progressed. Point guard Lindsey Harding was aggressive offensively and hitting her shots, Angel McCoughtry joined in after taking a little while to heat up, and Atlanta were in control. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Los Angeles Sparks vs. San Antonio Silver Stars

Los Angeles Sparks (#2 seed, 24-10) vs. San Antonio Silver Stars (#3 seed, 21-13)

 

Regular season series: San Antonio won 3-1

06/16 @S.A.: Silver Stars 98-85

06/24 @L.A.: Silver Stars 91-71

06/28 @S.A.: Silver Stars 94-80

08/23 @L.A.: Sparks 101-77

—–

For much of the season, the 2/3 matchup in the West looked like the most mouth-watering potential series. We had three teams all playing impressive basketball, with Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Antonio all winning consistently. Then it all rather drifted away in the final month of the season. Minnesota pulled away at the top, while LA had a horrendous road trip and San Antonio appeared to have forgotten how they built their 12-game winning streak earlier in the year. LA seemed to pull themselves together more convincingly before the end of the year, while San Antonio continued to struggle in all but a couple of games. The difficult question heading into this playoff series is which versions of these teams are actually going to show up.

When they’re rolling, both these squads can be scary offensively. LA have the speed, athleticism and natural ability of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike in the paint, a tandem that every other team in the league has trouble dealing with when they’re both fully invested. Parker had a series of quiet appearances after the Olympics, and appeared to be playing through a knee injury, but looked like she was emerging from that slump over the final couple of weeks. Ogwumike is a relentless rebounder, she’ll run the floor hard and she’ll fight for everything. On the perimeter, led by Kristi Toliver, they’ve got players who can shoot the lights out when they’re firing. Alana Beard’s offensive game has been improving all season as well, with her accuracy from outside returning, and DeLisha Milton-Jones can still score if you forget about her.

San Antonio have a different kind of attack. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

Minnesota Lynx (#1 seed, 27-7) vs. Seattle Storm (#4 seed, 16-18)

 

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

05/27 @Min: Lynx 84-71

06/06 @Min: Lynx 79-55

06/17 @Sea: Storm 65-62

08/21 @Sea: Lynx 86-73

—–

It’s been a long season for Storm fans. From very early on, thanks to the state Phoenix and Tulsa were in, a playoff spot was virtually guaranteed. But they’ve still suffered through a lot of messy basketball, multiple injuries (several of which are still lingering) and a lot of losses. In many ways, the Lynx have been even better than in their dominating 2011 Championship season. Their scoring average is up, with a higher team shooting percentage, while their opponents’ scoring has dropped several points. Maya Moore has developed into a more well-rounded player, while the other youngsters on the roster also have more experience under their belts. They’ve had one or two awkward periods this season, and yet still only lost 7 games all year. As with the Connecticut-New York series, examining this matchup from all angles ends up being an exercise in searching for ways to find hope for Seattle.

On the positive side for the Storm, their whole roster is at least healthy enough to play now. Sue Bird has been fighting through a hip issue, Lauren Jackson had a hamstring problem, Tanisha Wright’s knee has limited her, and most recently Svetlana Abrosimova sprained her wrist (she’s the only one that might still miss out in this series, although she’s expected to play). Having the band back together at least gives Seattle a puncher’s chance against Minnesota. Bird and Jackson have been a dangerous tandem for over a decade now, and they can still cause plenty of problems. Bird runs the show, and has a penchant for knocking down big shots when she has to. Jackson still has an offensive arsenal inside and out that can dominate. But they’ve had so little time to gain any rhythm and rebuild the chemistry since Jackson returned to the team after the Olympics. They’re deeper than they used to be, but the starters aren’t quite as effective any more, especially when injuries are still limiting what they can do. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream

Indiana Fever (#2 seed, 22-12) vs. Atlanta Dream (#3 seed, 19-15)

 

Regular season series: Indiana won, 3-2

05/19 @Ind: Fever 92-84

05/27 @Atl: Fever 78-62

06/26 @Atl: Dream 70-58

08/18 @Ind: Fever 86-72

09/05 @Atl: Dream 71-64

—–

Where the other Eastern matchup might be the easiest pick in the first round, this is probably the toughest. Despite making the big, dangerous decision to move star player Tamika Catchings from small forward to power forward for this season, the Fever have had a strong year. There’ve been a few hiccups along the way, and they play a rather different style from what we’ve grown used to over the years, but they’ve continued to win games. In fact, most of the advanced numbers (points per possession both offensively and defensively, pythagorean expected wins/losses etc.) make Indiana – not Connecticut – the top team in the East this season. But after all the confusion and controversy in Atlanta around the exit of Marynell Meadors and the absence/suspension of Angel McCoughtry, the Dream have settled into a threatening looking unit. They look like a team again, have played well over the last month, and they’ve reached the WNBA Finals from a low seed in each of the last two seasons. Can you bet against them doing it again?

In the past, this matchup would’ve been all about pace – and frankly that’s still a central element. What’s changed is that Indiana aren’t quite as pedestrian and plodding any more. They’ll run if you give them the chance, using their own defense to create transition chances, and they’ve grown very fond of the three-point shot. In fact, while both of these teams play tough, aggressive defense – Atlanta were 1st, Indiana 3rd in the WNBA this season in defensive points per possession – the style of scoring is where we’ll see the greatest contrast. While Indiana do get some penetration from Catchings, Katie Douglas and their guards, and some occasional post offense from backups like Jessica Davenport, a lot of their offense comes on perimeter shots. They generate them via drive-and-kicks or solid ball rotation, and fire away. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty

Connecticut Sun (#1 seed, 25-9) vs. New York Liberty (#4 seed, 15-19)

 

Regular season series: Connecticut 4-1

05/19 @NY: Sun 78-73

05/20 @Conn: Sun 92-77

06/15 @Conn: Sun 97-55

08/16 @NY: Liberty 79-66

08/18 @Conn: Sun 85-74

—–

On paper, this is the most one-sided matchup in the first round. Even more than Minnesota-Seattle in the West. Connecticut have been atop the Eastern Conference virtually all season long, and despite some injury issues still managed to win 8 of their final 11 games. Based on most of the advanced metrics, New York shouldn’t even be in the playoffs – they were behind the Chicago Sky in practically everything besides wins. So in looking at this series, you almost inevitably find yourself searching for places to offer hope for New York. Because on the face of it, this should be a blow out.

One potential positive for the Liberty is that Connecticut have some injury issues where you’d expect to find their advantage – in the post. Asjha Jones has only played twice since the Olympics due to an achilles injury, and while she looked pretty good in those two brief appearances, she may not be ready to produce at her previous levels. Tina Charles only took one game off to rest multiple niggling injuries, and has otherwise continued to play through any discomfort. The Liberty post corps of Plenette Pierson, Kara Braxton, Kia Vaughn and DeMya Walker is going to have to fight hard and make it a physical contest with Jones and Charles, because based on consistent level of performance this season they’re outmatched. Charles is a legitimate MVP contender, a skilled finisher inside with range out to 18-feet, and she constantly piles up rebounds. Jones has built up a nice chemistry with Charles over the last few years, and they work well together. Jones gives them an extra scoring threat who can stretch the defense, and as long as she’s fully recovered a more mobile defender than backup Mistie Mims. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 10/08/2011: Lynx complete their dream season

After last year’s sweep at the hands of Seattle, and the opening two games of this year’s Finals, the Atlanta Dream went into last night’s game with an unfortunate 0-5 record in the WNBA’s showpiece finale. While it was an achievement to emerge from the Eastern Conference twice in a row, it was starting to become a little embarrassing. Making it to the Big Dance and repeatedly coming up short almost leaves a worse taste in the mouth at the end of the season than being dumped out at an earlier stage. So Atlanta had every reason to raise their game and try to fight their way back into this series. For pride, if nothing else. Plus, if Minnesota could defend their home court in the opening two games, why shouldn’t the Dream defend theirs in the following two, and force a decider?

The starting fives were the same as in Game 2. As expected, Taj McWilliams-Franklin’s leg would have to have fallen off to keep her out of a Finals game, so the right knee sprain that forced her out of the final quarter two days earlier couldn’t stop her. Armintie Price retained her place at shooting guard for Atlanta, despite the disappointing games she’d had in the series so far, and the presence of Iziane Castro Marques loitering with intent on the bench.

The opening minutes looked good for Atlanta. They were evidently trying to feed Erika de Souza in the paint early on, and combined with a couple of breakouts for Angel McCoughtry that pushed them to a quick 8-2 lead. The most obvious difference from the opening tip-off in this game was the Dream defense on Seimone Augustus. For the first time in the series, McCoughtry was the primary defender on her instead of Price or one of the other wings. Along with that, instead of the weak switching they’d been doing on ball-screens throughout the series, whenever Augustus came off a screen they were trapping her hard with both the defenders involved, hoping to create turnovers or at least force the ball out of Augustus’s hands. If Atlanta were going down, they were at least determined that it wasn’t going to happen exactly the same way as we’d already seen in the previous games.

Not that this game was ever going to resemble Game 2. The lack of whistles was a blessed relief after the endless stoppages on Wednesday night, and the officials were clearly taking a more laissez-faire approach. If you wanted to shoot free throws in this game, you were going to have to do rather more to earn them. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 10/06/2011: The Fat Lady’s Warming Up

So last night brought us Game 2 of the WNBA Finals, and even this early the series was already on a knife edge. It’s not unprecedented, but very few teams in any sport make a comeback from 2-0 down in a best-of-five series. While it would simply mean that Minnesota had defended their home court in the opening two games, another win would send them off to Atlanta in an immensely strong position. After being swept in the Finals by Seattle last year, the last thing the Dream wanted to do was head home down 2-0 for the second year in a row, but after collapsing in the fourth quarter of Game 1 they had a lot of areas to improve in if they were going to tie the series up.

The hope for Atlanta was that one obvious improvement could have a big impact. Erika de Souza was back from the FIBA Americas tournament in Colombia, despite some travel difficulties that had postponed her arrival to a day or two later than anticipated. After being beaten up on the glass in Game 1 and struggling at times with the awkward matchups created by playing their small lineup against Minnesota’s bigs, the return of their burly center presented an obvious solution to some of those issues. She went straight back into Atlanta’s starting lineup in place of Iziane Castro Marques, reestablishing the group that had led the Dream’s strong second half of the season. Minnesota, of course, continued with the same starters that have led the way for them all year long.

The interesting aspect of the opening minutes of the game was how little Atlanta had changed, despite the return of their more traditional lineup. Defensively, Sancho Lyttle was on Taj McWilliams-Franklin with de Souza on Rebekkah Brunson to start the game (a slightly surprising way round, but workable). However, the Dream were still switching on screens, leaving little guards on post players while the posts tried to cover the perimeter players. So even though they now had two true post players on the floor to match up more naturally against Minnesota, Atlanta were still allowing all kinds of awkward mismatches to be created. You could see the obvious difference when the ball moved to the other end. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 10/03/2011: Flying start for Finals, but Lynx prove too much for Dream in Game 1

Last night, the WNBA Finals got underway, and they did it in style. If you haven’t caught the game yet, stop reading this and go spend a couple of very enjoyable hours catching up – it was a heck of a contest. If you’ve seen it already, stick around for the next couple of thousand words while I pat myself on the back for everything I got right in the Mega-Preview (and skim swiftly over the occasional item where I might’ve been slightly off).

The teams came out as expected: Minnesota with their standard starting five, Atlanta with the small lineup that won them the Eastern Finals over Indiana. That left both teams dealing with the obvious mismatch created by the Lynx having two true post players on the floor in Rebekkah Brunson and Taj McWilliams-Franklin, while the Dream had four perimeter players out there. At the start of defensive possessions to begin the game, Angel McCoughtry was nominally on McWilliams-Franklin, with Sancho Lyttle taking Brunson. But the Dream were essentially playing a scramble defense and trying to create as much chaos as possible. They were switching at practically every opportunity, which sometimes left them with ugly mismatches like point guard Lindsey Harding trying to hold off McWilliams-Franklin in the post. However, the speed and activity of all their defenders was compensating and allowing them to survive.

Minnesota’s defense was rather different. They don’t like to switch except when absolutely necessary, so they came out playing straight-up man-to-man, with Brunson doing her best to handle McCoughtry, McWilliams-Franklin taking Lyttle, and Maya Moore taking on Iziane Castro Marques. The problem was that after Brunson and McWilliams-Franklin took advantage of Atlanta’s switching to open an early 6-3 lead, the Dream turned the game into a track meet. And when the ball’s flying from one end to the other, matchups don’t matter all that much – no one even has time to search for their man before the ball’s heading towards the hoop. Continue reading →

WNBA Finals Mega-Preview Part 7: The Conclusion and Prediction

If you happen to be crazy enough to add up all the ratings I’ve given both teams in every area presented, Minnesota comes out ahead 87.5 to 83 (out of a possible 100). In fact, the Lynx only lost out in one of the ten categories. So I should be taking Minnesota to win with ease, right? Well it’s not quite that simple.

Both last year and in the last month, Atlanta have shown an impressive ability to step up their game when they’ve had to. They know how to fight, they know how to win, and they know how compete against the best opposition around. If McCoughtry can show up as the leader and scorer that she was for the second half of the regular season – not the ineffective ghost that she opened the playoffs as – she’ll be tough for Minnesota to handle. She’ll also lead the way in one area I didn’t examine separately that Atlanta are likely to dominate – free throw creation. The Dream could well win at least one game in this series purely through a free throw discrepancy that could creep up towards 20. Plus with Minnesota’s reliance on their starting unit, any foul trouble Atlanta can force them into will damage their rhythm and cohesion at both ends of the floor.

However, I can’t help coming back to one noticeable aspect of this year’s Minnesota Lynx that jumps out of multiple advanced statistical categories: they’re this year’s 2010 Seattle Storm. Continue reading →

WNBA Finals Mega-Preview Part 6: The Extras

Speed

Considering I gave Minnesota an edge in the post because they’re likely to play with two true bigs for the vast majority of the series, Atlanta has to get credit for the opposite mismatch. But it’s not just that. The Dream are quicker at nearly every spot on the floor. Minnesota are athletic and mobile, and they play smart – which compensates somewhat for a lack of quickness in any sport – but the Dream are just faster. Players like Harding, Price and Castro Marques will try to use their speed to attack the Lynx in this series, and at times it’s going to work.

However, Minnesota just came off a series against Phoenix, the other WNBA team that does nothing but run, and they took them apart. The Lynx also finished the regular season right among the league leaders in categories like fastbreak points and points off turnovers. In other words, they can run too. Also, unlike Atlanta, Minnesota finished top in the defensive versions of those statistics, i.e. they held their opponents to the fewest points off turnovers, and the fewest fastbreak points in the WNBA. So they’re exceptionally good at working back in transition, and in preventing the opposition from creating the opportunities to run in the first place. Pace decided the Eastern Conference Finals – Indiana couldn’t keep up with the Dream once they turned the series into a track meet – but that’s not going to happen here. Atlanta will be most comfortable if the pace is high, but Minnesota can run right with them. Just not quite as fast.

Atlanta 10/10, Minnesota 9/10: Edge Atlanta, because they’d win in a footrace. But don’t expect it to translate on the floor as well as it would against any other opponent.

 

Defense

Both these teams are very good defensively. In terms of points per possession, Minnesota finished second in the WNBA this year and Atlanta eighth, but that’s misleading. Continue reading →