Yes, another chance to hear my dulcet tones, this time previewing the women’s World Championships which begin tomorrow. David Siegel was kind enough to invite me back to his Dishin & Swishin podcast to talk about the teams, players, groups and everything else surrounding the upcoming tournament – including whether anyone can beat Team USA.
Follow the link below to head to the piece, and click any of the play options at the top of the article to listen.
Phoenix Mercury 87 @ Chicago Sky 82
Lineups: The big news before tip-off was that Brittney Griner was out after an outpatient procedure on her right eye the day before. Missing the game was a precautionary measure advised by her doctors, and she would’ve likely been available for future games in the series. If Phoenix hadn’t been up 2-0 and utterly dominant so far in the series, they might’ve pushed the medical staff a little harder to clear her. Ewelina Kobryn came into the starting lineup to fill her spot, as the slightly bigger and more physical option ahead of Mistie Bass. Importantly, Kobryn is also a better defender than Bass, although obviously either was going to be a significant drop-off from Griner.
Story of the Game: In the previous two games, the teams had been closely matched during the minutes that Griner spent on the bench. So it was no surprise that we ended up with a tight contest while she watched from the sidelines. As you’d expect, the Sky looked to feed Sylvia Fowles in the paint early on. Kobryn did a decent job battling with her and playing the Griner-role guarding the pass on the pick-and-roll, but the basic gaps in size and athleticism between her and Griner made the passes and finishes easier for Chicago. That said, Fowles still missed some straightforward layups around the rim, and Kobryn was getting most of the points back at the other end with finishes over and around Fowles. Unfortunately for Phoenix, Kobryn picked up a cheap early foul, and then a desperately soft call added her second. She was back on the bench after barely five minutes of play.
The problem for Chicago was that while the absence of Griner had opened up some room for their offense, they still couldn’t stop the Mercury. A couple of early fouls for Tamera Young didn’t help, sending one of the Sky’s key defenders back to the bench, and Phoenix continued to score just as smoothly and easily as they had in the previous games. Kobryn and Bass had too much room to finish inside as Fowles continued to show hard on high screens without decent rotation help behind her. Diana Taurasi continued to shoot and score over Courtney Vandersloot whenever she felt like it. And as they’d done throughout the series, Phoenix attacked Elena Delle Donne with whoever she happened to be guarding. Delle Donne looked relatively mobile and healthy in this game on offense, joining Fowles as Chicago’s primary threats in the early stages. But her defense isn’t great to begin with, and with her back problems limiting her physically the Mercury have been exploiting her since Game 1. She started the game on DeWanna Bonner, slid over to Candice Dupree when Young sat down, and both scored with relative ease. The Sky were right in the contest, but they were doing no better defensively than in previous games.
Behind jump shots from Delle Donne and Allie Quigley, Chicago actually led midway through the second quarter, a rare occurrence in this series. But Phoenix responded through Candice Dupree, who carried most of their offense in the second period. Her regular display of smooth finishes inside and mid-range jump shots that dropped like layups kept the points rolling for Phoenix (and considering Young only had two fouls and had done a solid job defending Dupree whenever given the chance in this series, you’d have to ask Pokey Chatman to find out why Young never came back in during the second quarter to try to cool Dupree off). Fowles and Kobryn both came back in to resume their battle in the paint (and Kobryn picked up another foul when Fowles backed her under the rim), while Taurasi got a little too aggressive with her jumper and started forcing – and missing – a few. She scored consistently and often easily when defended by Vandersloot in this series, but when Chicago slid someone else over to cover her – even similarly small or weak defenders like Quigley or Epiphanny Prince – she wasn’t quite as successful. The Sky were only down by two at the break, which was a lot better than where they’d been at halftime in the previous games.
Chicago Sky 68 @ Phoenix Mercury 97
Lineups: The same fives that opened Game 1 came out for Game 2, so Elena Delle Donne was ready to play despite the problems with her back.
Story of the Game: There was an immediately obvious switch for the Sky from Game 1, with Tamera Young sliding over to guard Candice Dupree while Delle Donne tried to hide on DeWanna Bonner. It wasn’t the move to having Young guard Diana Taurasi that I’d been hoping for, but it at least made use of Young being on the floor. Of course, the hope for Chicago would’ve been that it put less stress on Delle Donne (and that she wouldn’t give up so many points defensively, after Dupree lit up the Sky in Game 1).
The energy and attack mentality of the Sky was a little better in the early stages than we’d seen for much of Game 1, but we also saw Sylvia Fowles blow yet more finishes around the rim under pressure from Brittney Griner, while Griner converted over or around Fowles at the other end. That was the same as 48 hours earlier. Then Fowles inadvertently took Griner out of the game for several minutes after catching her in the face with a swipe of her arm while fighting for a rebound. Griner was left lying on the court for several seconds while play continued, and went to the sidelines for treatment on a scratch near her right eye. Ewelina Kobryn was the choice to fill in, rather than Mistie Bass, due to her greater size and bulk to match up with Fowles.
Whether Griner was in the game or not, Chicago still weren’t particularly effective in running anything offensively, but they did have Delle Donne looking relatively mobile and hitting a couple of shots. Phoenix largely scored with the same regularity that they had in Game 1, with Bonner more aggressive in an effort to exploit Delle Donne’s defense. The Mercury were hurt by foul trouble for Taurasi, after she’d taken one intentionally to stop the game for Griner’s injury, then was called for a push-off after barely five minutes of action. But Chicago still weren’t exactly effective in slowing them down. By the end of the first quarter Phoenix were up by seven, and both Fowles and Griner had joined Taurasi on two fouls apiece (Fowles picking up both of hers while defending Kobryn, Griner adding her second on an illegal screen – so all pretty dumb).
The early stages of the second quarter were Chicago’s most positive minutes of the series. Griner started it on the bench, and the Sky finally found some success with their pick-and-roll game, working it mostly with Markeisha Gatling and Epiphanny Prince. Without Griner’s movement and long arms there to block the way, either the dump-off pass to Gatling was available, or Prince pulled up and hit shots in space. Even once Griner came back in, the Sky had finally discovered some offensive rhythm, and Prince was joined by Delle Donne and Allie Quigley in hitting some shots from the perimeter. This was the other element the Sky had missed in Game 1 – basic shot-making. Some of them were tough, some were contested, but they dropped and we had a tight contest on our hands.
Chicago Sky 62 @ Phoenix Mercury 83
Lineups: The starters were as expected. Phoenix inevitably went with the five that have been dominating for them for much of the season, while Chicago resisted any temptation to make immediate changes to try to match up with Phoenix’s size.
Story of the Game: It was ugly for Chicago right from the start. They were trying to feed Sylvia Fowles in the paint, and she actually managed to back her way into deep position on Brittney Griner a couple of times, but they either couldn’t make the entry pass or Fowles couldn’t finish under pressure from Griner. When the Sky brought Fowles out high to try to run pick-and-rolls, they quickly found that it was a much more difficult proposition than it had been against Indiana. Griner would show briefly on the ballhandler, then drop quickly back into the lane to cover the rolling Fowles, and Chicago couldn’t connect on the feed back to their center. Either Griner would snake a long arm into the way, or help defenders would come across in time. It took a long and painful 5 minutes and 10 seconds for the Sky to score their first points of the afternoon.
Meanwhile, Phoenix’s offense wasn’t actually running that smoothly, which prevented their immediate lead from growing too big. Diana Taurasi and Candice Dupree gave the Sky a couple of lessons in how to run the pick-and-roll to perfection, and Taurasi hit a couple of quick pullup jumpers, but most of their dominance was coming on the defensive end. They were so dominant defensively that they could hardly help but start to pull away.
Both teams began with fairly straightforward defensive matchups. Dupree took Elena Delle Donne, rather than trying to twist the Mercury defense to slide someone like DeWanna Bonner onto her. That left Bonner to cover Epiphanny Prince, Taurasi on Courtney Vandersloot, and Penny Taylor on Tamera Young. Chicago opened with the same matchups in reverse, which continues to make little sense to me. As I mentioned in the preview for this series, they had some success using a small point guard on Taurasi in their second regular season encounter with the Mercury, but it makes Young’s presence on the floor virtually redundant. She’s not a great offensive player at all – she’ll hustle, she’ll hit an occasional jump shot, but opponents will essentially let her shoot all she wants. She’s out there for her defense. For all her qualities, Penny Taylor will only occasionally make a significant impact on games these days – and while Taylor was relatively quiet, Young didn’t even do that great a defensive job on her. It was almost like Young subconsciously felt she was being wasted out there as well. Taurasi’s the one that makes Phoenix tick. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Chicago start Game 2 with Young on Taurasi, while trying to hide their guards on Bonner and Taylor.
Because in the second quarter Phoenix’s dominance on the floor finally started to show on the scoreboard. Delle Donne had been fairly quiet, and after being nudged in her already-injured back midway through the second quarter she went to the sidelines for rest and more treatment. She’d had far more trouble containing Dupree than the reverse matchup had caused problems for Phoenix. Everything started flowing for the Mercury. Dupree was hitting her mid-range jumper repeatedly off the pick-and-roll. Griner was converting inside when Phoenix went to her in the paint. Taurasi was knocking down jumpers whenever she was given an inch of space, and spraying passes around the floor. It was far too easy for them. Meanwhile Prince tried to step up and carry the offense for the Sky, but that didn’t last for long, and Fowles still rarely managed to finish inside. A gorgeous no-look 30-foot bullet pass from Taurasi to Dupree under the basket closed the scoring for the half, and Phoenix were up by 22 points at the break. It was a blowout, and there wasn’t even a hint of a comeback in sight for Chicago.
Storylines and Key Areas
It was covered in the previous section, but health is obviously vital. Delle Donne’s back problem is the major concern, but Chicago also have Breland likely rushing back from her shoulder injury faster than normal because they needed her, and Vandersloot has struggled to stay in front of anyone defensively since returning from her knee problem. Phoenix’s core group have been remarkably healthy all season long, which has played an important role in their dominance. Look back through the WNBA champions, and you tend to find teams whose key players were fit and available all season long. That said, while the Mercury have a few decent contributors off their bench, an injury to Griner or Taurasi would change everything in an instant for them. Chicago can at least claim to be prepared for how they’d play with virtually any injury or absence – because they’ve been through them all at some point this season.
Rebounding. Oddly enough, over the entire regular season, these were two of the three-worst rebounding teams in the WNBA (Seattle were rock bottom, Phoenix 11th and Chicago 10th). Most of the Mercury’s negative numbers came on the offensive glass – they eschewed chasing offensive boards in favour of making sure they got back in transition and set their defense. Chicago were pretty bad on both ends, for a variety of reasons. Fowles missed time hurt, Delle Donne got sick and then played nominal power forward while mostly out on the perimeter, their defensive help schemes often rotate people out of rebounding position, and their perimeter players offer very little rebounding help to their posts. So where’s the edge going to be? When two teams are playing, the rebounding percentages have to add up to 100% one way or another. Chicago won’t want to give up any cheap points, so they’ll be looking to get back quickly in transition as well, but they need to attack the glass. They lost the hustle and energy battle to Indiana at several points in the Eastern Finals, and it almost cost them the series. They’re already likely to lose out in too many areas to Phoenix, so they need to outwork the Mercury for things like offensive boards, loose balls and deflections.
That links into the topic of fast breaks and transition points. Despite both of these teams having some outstanding athletes, neither of them actually runs all that much. And both defenses are based more around containment and contesting shots than forcing steals and getting out on the break. So it’s another area where you could look to surprise. Phoenix will use their length to press ballhandlers like Vandersloot and Quigley at times, while players like Prince and Young will look to poke their hands into passing lanes for steals on occasion. Again, Chicago need cheap points. They have to look for every little edge they can get.
Mercury Offense vs Sky Defense
Phoenix played some really pretty offensive basketball this season, on their way to producing the best offense in the WNBA. While Taurasi outside and Griner inside are their most obvious threats, they move the ball unselfishly around the floor to the best option, and the fact that everyone on the floor is a scoring threat at any given moment makes them especially hard to defend. Taurasi’s one of the greatest scorers the women’s game has ever seen, capable of firing from anywhere, drawing lots of fouls, and finding her way to the rim when necessary – as she finally illustrated in the deciding game against Minnesota, after shooting poorly from the perimeter in previous games against the Lynx. Griner has developed as an interior threat, finishing at an efficient rate inside on post moves and short turnarounds, and moving better without the ball to find space for herself on the way to the rim. Fowles’s size will make it more difficult to just toss lobs up high to Griner, but she’s still got a couple of inches on the Sky center. The option will still be there. She’s also a much, much better passer than Fowles, so her teammates can score off her by waiting in space or cutting through it.
Dupree’s been the next option for Phoenix, almost automatic from mid-range when she pops into the space created by defenses leaning towards Taurasi and Griner. If Delle Donne’s hurting, covering Dupree’s movement is going to be tough, because she can slide to the rim and finish smoothly as well. Having something approaching the old Penny Taylor back has also been important for Phoenix this year. She’s a little slower than before, but she’s still got the all-court game that allows her to score inside and out, constantly makes the right pass to the right teammate, and generally makes plays all over the floor. Bonner has helped herself and her team simply by taking fewer shots this year, recognising that there’s often a better option than just firing away. But it helps Phoenix when she’s aggressive. Attacking the basket off the dribble when it’s on, driving into the space afforded her by teams who help away from her, and occasionally hitting a wide open jumper so opponents don’t just ignore her entirely.
The fact that the Mercury can space the floor now also makes them much more dangerous offensively this year than they were last. Taurasi was the primary ballhandler last year as well, but also the only player opponents really had to worry about from deep. Now they’ve got Taylor, Phillips off the bench (plus Shay Murphy and Anete Jekabsone-Zogota if Brondello goes that deep into her rotation), and Bonner if you leave her completely alone. With Griner, Dupree and Mistie Bass all comfortable to at least 15 feet as well, that’s a big problem for Chicago and one of the key differences between what the Sky faced in their series against Indiana and what they’ll be up against in the Finals.
Phoenix Mercury (West’s #1 seed, 29-5) vs Chicago Sky (East’s #4 seed, 15-19)
Phoenix
Points scored per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency): 106.21, 1st in WNBA
Points conceded per 100 possessions (defensive efficiency): 93.89, 1st in WNBA
Chicago
Points scored per 100 possessions (offensive efficiency): 97.00, 8th in WNBA
Points conceded per 100 possessions (defensive efficiency): 99.51, 9th in WNBA
Season series: Mercury won 2-0
07/02 @Pho: Mercury won 87-69
07/11 @ Chi: Mercury won 72-66
(but Chicago were without both Vandersloot and Delle Donne for both regular season games, so don’t pay too much attention to those)
—–
You’re going to notice a theme in this preview (and probably in most other previews you read for this series anywhere else). While there are certain areas where Chicago might be able to find a small edge, or where they can find hope for their prospects, you basically have to try to talk yourself into giving them a chance. Over the course of the 2014 WNBA season, the Phoenix Mercury were the best team in the league. They beat the second-best team in the last round, when they eliminated Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. So you have to believe the Sky are coming together at exactly the right time, or that they create some specific issues for Phoenix, or that Pokey Chatman is going to wildly outcoach Sandy Brondello, to believe that Chicago can win three-out-of-five over the next 11 days.
Matchups
Normally we’d talk about team offense and defense before delving into the minutiae of individual matchups, but it’s going to filter into every other topic, so we’ll start here. Chicago are one of the few teams in the WNBA who’ll largely defend Brittney Griner one-on-one. Most opponents double-team whenever she catches the ball remotely near the rim, but Chicago will trust Sylvia Fowles to defend her straight up. And she can do that. Phoenix will still look to go inside, and Griner will score at times, but Fowles is a strong and mobile enough defender to make it harder for Griner to score than it is against almost anyone else. That also puts a crimp in Phoenix’s offense elsewhere, because they often create open shots thanks to the ball going in to Griner, then rotating back out when extra defenders drop down on her, creating open looks. If Fowles can cope on her own, everyone else can stay home. It’ll be a similar story at the other end, where obviously Griner will defend Fowles, and her size and length will make it difficult for the Sky center to score inside. It’ll also be much harder for Chicago to feed Fowles than it was in the recent Indiana series, purely because of the size of all the other players around the floor. It’s hard to enter the ball with all those long limbs in the way.
After we get past the centers, it becomes much more complicated. Both teams have their designated defensive ‘stopper’, in Tamera Young for Chicago and DeWanna Bonner for Phoenix. Between them, they’ve covered Angel McCoughtry, Tamika Catchings, Candace Parker and Maya Moore in the last two rounds. But they both guard perimeter players (or at least players who spend the majority of their time on the perimeter – all of those opponents play at least a little power forward). So Bonner guarding Elena Delle Donne – if the Sky star stays at power forward, where she’s played almost all her basketball since returning midseason from her struggles with Lyme disease – would require some awkward shifting. Candice Dupree would have to slide over to guard Young. That’s possible, but what we may see instead is Dupree starting on Delle Donne, with Bonner guarding the biggest threat among the actual perimeter players. Especially if Delle Donne is still limited by the back issue that restricted her in the Eastern Finals, Dupree can probably cope on her. That would allow Bonner to cover Courtney Vandersloot, trying to upset the Chicago offense by unsettling their distribution at the point, or stay on top of Epiphanny Prince and Allie Quigley at shooting guard. Diana Taurasi will take whichever of those guards is left – and has done okay defensively this season with the security blanket of Griner behind her – while Penny Taylor hides on Young.
Chicago Sky 75 @ Indiana Fever 62
Lineups: Starters were the same as in previous games. Elena Delle Donne was still struggling with her back problem, but fit enough to get out on the court and at least play a heavy decoy role, even if she was no longer carrying the offense.
Story of the Game: After the Lynx and Mercury started the previous night’s Game 3 smoking hot, the Sky and Fever went with an ice cold shower instead. There was a lot of messy basketball played early on, a lot of bricks tossed up from the perimeter, and Indiana looked oddly nervous while committing several unforced turnovers. There wasn’t much worth talking about from the first quarter, except that Epiphanny Prince actually hit her first perimeter jump shot, and while Shavonte Zellous hit a couple from outside as well, the Sky were doing a better job of cutting off her flex-cut post-ups. That’s the play where she starts out in the corner, then uses a screen to dive into the space under the rim, looking for a pass deep in the paint to finish over her smaller defender. Prince was battling well to keep her from getting position in the first place, and the other Sky players were getting hands into the passing lanes as well. Basically, the play was no longer working. However, Indiana were already showing signs of dominating the offensive glass yet again, which kept the scores close.
It wasn’t until late in the second quarter that we saw the first meaningful lead of the night, and it came thanks to the play of the woman who’s been increasingly stealing minutes away from Prince this season. Allie Quigley was the first player who’d managed to discover a consistent run of accuracy on her jumper all night, which helped the Sky turn a tied game into an eight-point lead by halftime. At times, Quigley’s still a shaky ballhandler, and she’s not a natural point guard at all despite being used by Pokey Chatman at that spot many times in the last two years. But she can shoot, and having that scoring threat on the ball sometimes pays off more than her negatives leave Chicago vulnerable. Lin Dunn called a timeout in the middle of her scoring run, and both Zellous and Tamika Catchings attacked the basket for Indiana on the series of possessions that followed, resulting in better shots and points for the Fever. But with Briann January coughing up yet another pair of unnecessary turnovers on their closing plays, Chicago went into the break on top.
Catchings had struggled with her jump shot throughout the series, and Game 3 was no different. The Fever tried at times to feed her the ball inside, but she’s not a natural post-up player. She’s been the nominal power forward for the Fever for several years now, but at her heart she’s still a perimeter player on offense. She gets her points in the paint off drives or hustle plays for rebounds and putbacks, rarely on true low-post moves. And with her jump shot failing to drop, Tamera Young could afford to give her a little more room to shoot, and play her for the drive. After three games chasing Angel McCoughtry, Young spent three more covering Catchings, and did an admirable job.
Minnesota Lynx 78 @ Phoenix Mercury 96
Lineups: As expected, once again.
Story of the Game: Minnesota got off to a much better start offensively in this game than they had in the previous two – but unfortunately for them Phoenix were scoring even more effectively. Sandy Brondello had clearly drummed into her team the need to attack the paint, either by feeding Brittney Griner inside or driving off the bounce. For the entire first half, Griner scored efficiently when they fed her inside, but she was almost more important as a decoy. She’d come out high to set screens, Minnesota’s perimeter defenders would shift themselves dramatically to try to prevent the ballhandler using the pick, and then the Mercury player would happily reject the screen and drive into the space to the rim instead. Just the threat of Griner rolling to the basket was bending the defense to such an extent that Phoenix were lighting up the scoreboard, almost entirely on layups.
Diana Taurasi in particular – after I had the temerity to point out how poorly she’d shot in her last four games against the Lynx – was still looking for her own offense, but taking much better shots. They weren’t quick-fire jumpers, but rather aggressive drives right to the basket, often after screening, rescreening, and maybe even rescreening again from her posts. Between her, Griner, a better attack mentality from DeWanna Bonner, and chip-in contribution from Candice Dupree and Penny Taylor, this was the best we’d seen Phoenix’s offense running for a while, and Minnesota couldn’t slow them down or keep them from getting to the basket.
But the Lynx stayed in it thanks to better offensive production than we’d seen from them for most of the series. Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore all hit their fair share of shots in the first half, as much of the Lynx offense continued to come on jumpers, but the motion and movement was noticeably better. Phoenix seemed to have loosened up their scheme a little, and were slightly more willing to switch defensive assignments than they’d been in Games 1 and 2, but much of that was forced by the pick-and-rolls and off-ball movement of the Lynx. Rebekkah Brunson’s mid-range jumper was cold, which hurt because it allowed Griner to sag off her and help more elsewhere, but Minnesota’s perimeter trio wasn’t allowing Phoenix’s offensive success to blow them off the court.
In fact, Minnesota never trailed by more than nine points under Phoenix’s opening barrage, and when Griner rested to start the second period they actually took advantage – something they hadn’t done enough in this series. They attacked the rim a little more, created some transition chances when Phoenix’s offense stuttered slightly, and got some production from Monica Wright off their bench – after she’d been virtually anonymous in the previous games.
Indiana Fever 84 @ Chicago Sky 86 (2OT)
Lineups: No changes from Game 1.
Story of the Game: The early stages of this game were pretty dull and very even. Chicago got Sylvia Fowles involved, and got out in transition a little, which were both good signs for the Sky. Briann January and Shavonte Zellous weren’t shooting as well from the perimeter as they had in stretches of Game 1 for Indiana, but the Fever were already picking up offensive boards and second-chance points. It all balanced out.
Fowles hurt her own team with silly mistakes early in the second quarter – although Pokey Chatman’s scheme was arguably just as much to blame. As we’ve seen several times before, Fowles picked up a foul 30 feet away from the hoop trying to hedge hard on a screen, only to make too much contact with the ballhandler. That was her second foul of the game, and was immediately followed by an easy Karima Christmas layup for Indiana when Fowles let her go to avoid adding her third. Minutes later, Fowles hedged hard again, picked up that third foul, and spent the last 6:34 of the first half on the bench as a result. When you’ve got a franchise center who you desperately need on the court, it’s insane to have her using up her six fouls – and forcing herself to the bench – by hedging so hard a mile away from the basket.
Chicago were down by six when Fowles sat down, and that gap grew as high as 14 in the second quarter with her on the bench. The Sky’s help defense collapsed as Chatman cycled through Sasha Goodlett and Markeisha Gatling in the search for someone to fill the center spot, Erlana Larkins suddenly started scoring inside, and a tight game became one-sided. It also allowed Indiana to be even more obvious in sending extra defenders to stop Elena Delle Donne whenever she tried to attack Tamika Catchings, and slow down Chicago’s scoring even further.
Chatman went a little gimmicky with her lineup to close out the first half, using Gatling for the first time in the entire playoffs and going small on the perimeter with Courtney Vandersloot, Epiphanny Prince and Allie Quigley all playing together. With Quigley hitting a couple of threes in the closing stages, it helped to give the Sky a small foothold back in the game, and pull within eight at halftime. Considering how the second quarter had gone, the amount of time Fowles had spent on the bench and the significant rebounding advantage Indiana had achieved, only being down eight felt like a win for Chicago.
It took just under three minutes of the third quarter for Chatman to realise something that had become increasingly obvious to everybody during the first half – that her best lineup on this particular night involved gluing Prince’s backside to the bench. She hadn’t been able to hit anything all night, whether on jumpers or layups, and considering her ability to create her own offense is the main reason to have her on the floor, that made her a liability. Quigley came in instead, and Prince wouldn’t return for a long time.
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