By the numbers (over entire regular season):
Atlanta (17-17) vs Washington (17-17)
Points scored per 100 possessions: 95.19 (9th in WNBA) – 95.96 (6th)
Points conceded per 100 possessions: 93.2 (1st) – 95.6 (6th)
Rebound percentage: .503 (4th) – .502 (6th)
Season series between the teams: Atlanta won 3-2
06/02 @Wash, Dream won 73-63
06/28 @Atl, Dream won 86-75
08/18 @Atl, Dream won 76-58
08/23 @Wash, Mystics won 74-64
08/28 @Atl, Mystics won 85-80
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These teams finished tied with .500 records in the Eastern Conference, but arrived there by very different routes. Washington were a ‘win two here, lose three there’ kind of team all season long. They’d fight out a few results, then lose their way for a while, then remember what they needed to do to win games again. Just to make it this far has to be considered a success for Mike Thibault and his squad, considering the disastrous couple of years under Trudi Lacey that preceded this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta started the year 10-1, and then dropped into something resembling freefall. For those of you who can do basic math, you’ll be able to calculate that they went 7-16 over the remainder of the season. Injuries hit them hard, and it was a struggle to overcome them enough to regain real form in the second half of the year – plus not everyone is back. Both these teams are somehow predictably unpredictable, which makes foretelling how their series is going to play out rather tricky.
Thibault has turned the Mystics into a solid team this year. You can see from the stats above that they’re pretty consistently mediocre – which isn’t a criticism. They’ve lifted themselves to being middle-of-the-pack at most aspects of the game. They play decent team defense, they can hit shots from outside, they can draw fouls on penetration – but they’re also prone to cold streaks, occasional breakdowns defensively, and becoming painfully static on offense. They work hard for each other, but you’re never quite sure where their offense is going to come from. Will Ivory Latta or Monique Currie get hot from the perimeter? Is this a random night where Kia Vaughn or Crystal Langhorne finds some rhythm inside? Will their young bench group lead to the offense disintegrating or energise the team and keep the starters on the bench? They’ve pieced things together this season from game to game, finding the hot hand wherever it is, and clawing out wins. Their depth and multiple potential scorers makes it hard to plan to stop them, because you can’t focus on a particular player or two, but it also means they don’t have a true go-to option. They’re reliant on someone stepping up on any given night.