WNBA Today, 09/21/2013: Fever fire and outshoot sloppy Sky, before Lynx finally end the run of upsets

 

After a couple of upsets shifted the balance of the WNBA playoffs on opening night, the second evening began with the series that always looked most likely to provide a lower seed surprise. The reigning champion Indiana Fever had struggled through the regular season and finished with a 16-18 record, but they were 3-1 against Chicago, and have repeatedly beaten the Sky over the years. When several players were given the night off for Indiana’s final regular season game, it became pretty clear that the Fever were happy to face Chicago in the first-round. The Sky may have been the best team in the East this season, but the Fever weren’t the least bit afraid to take them on.

 

However, the task appeared to become more difficult for Indiana before tip-off, when Katie Douglas was ruled out due to more back pain. The Fever had ended up losing out on two counts – Douglas’s return forced them to release backup post Jessica Breland, and now they didn’t have Douglas either. On the bright side, after a season of filling-in and stepping up quite nicely, Karima Christmas was well-prepared to slide back into the starting role that Douglas would’ve taken. Chicago had their regular group to start the game.

 

The first punch in the coaching battle was thrown by Indiana’s Lin Dunn, with a shift in the defensive matchups. The Fever switch enough that the initial assignments don’t always matter that much, but they had Tamika Catchings on Elena Delle Donne, Christmas on Epiphanny Prince, and Shavonte Zellous on Swin Cash to open the game. Christmas had done most of the work on Delle Donne in the regular season clashes between these teams, with Catchings on Cash and Zellous on Prince, in more ‘natural’ matchups along positional lines. They were obviously happy to take the minimal risk that Cash would use her size and strength to take advantage of being guarded by a perimeter player (and they were proven right). Maybe the changes came from preparing for the series with Douglas in mind as a starter rather than Christmas, but it’s equally possible that Dunn just wanted that extra little edge that nudging your opponent off-balance can provide.

 

The Sky tried to go inside to Sylvia Fowles, early and often. But Erlana Larkins was doing her typical impressive job of using her body to put Fowles under pressure, making it hard for Fowles to get deep position in the paint and equally tough to finish whenever she did receive the ball. It was very hard work for Big Syl inside early on. Fortunately for Chicago, Delle Donne drew some fouls to head to the free throw line, and exploited Indiana’s switching a couple of times for three-point plays over Briann January on the low block. Chicago’s offense was surviving okay.

 

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2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Western Conference First Round – Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Minnesota (26-8) vs Seattle (17-17)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.46 (1st in WNBA (by a mile)) – 95.71 (7th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 94.55 (3rd) – 98.73 (9th)

Rebound percentage: .522 (2nd) – .489 (9th)

 

Season series between the teams: Minnesota won 4-0

08/04 @Min, Lynx won 90-72

08/31 @Min, Lynx won 97-74

09/07 @Sea, Lynx won 75-60

09/10 @Sea, Lynx won 73-60

 

—–

 

As we’ve heard virtually every commentator and analyst across the league proclaim in the second half of the season, “no one expected Seattle to be in this position”. Of course that’s not entirely true – in one of my rare moments of insight, I had the Storm making the playoffs in my preseason predictions, and in fact even had them facing Minnesota in the first-round. That prediction was based on the simple knowledge that over the years, whichever key players happened to be missing on a given night, Brian Agler’s Storm teams found a way to win basketball games. The team defense is there, the collective effort and organisation is there, and they don’t give up. So if anyone is going to give Seattle a chance in this series, it’s going to be me, right?

 

The problem is, it’s incredibly hard to come up with defensible arguments that give the Storm a prayer in this series. Minnesota have been a dominant team yet again this year, led by the wing scoring from Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, along with the leadership and attacking of Lindsay Whalen at the point. Then there’s still the athleticism and rebounding of Rebekkah Brunson and the smarts and passing of Janel McCarville inside, and one of the most aggressive and effective team defenses in the game – plus the additional chemistry of their core (besides McCarville) having now been together for several years. It’s a Lynx team that loves to play up-tempo and run by you in transition, but can also execute in the halfcourt and create good looks at the basket. They’re a nightmare to handle.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/15/2013: Lynx seal WNBA’s best record yet again by beating Sky; tributes paid to Warrior Princess

 

Considering how many meaningless games we tend to have to sit through at the end of regular seasons – in all sports – the WNBA schedulers couldn’t have scripted last night much better. A virtual playoff between the top two teams in the league for home-court advantage throughout the postseason, then a fond farewell to a legend overshadowing the terrible game that completed the evening. That’s a pretty good penultimate night for the regular season schedule.

 

Chicago came into Minnesota having had to work pretty hard to bring meaning to the encounter. Despite sealing the #1 seed in the East some time ago, Pokey Chatman has continued to play her stars for heavy minutes in the interest of building momentum heading into the playoffs, and maybe grabbing home-court over the West as well. Most recently, that included a win over Atlanta on Friday night where Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles played a combined 76 minutes and 34 seconds. Minnesota is not where you want to be flying on the second half of a tiring back-to-back. 14-2 at home coming into this game, the Lynx have continued to roll down the stretch, with the usual string of victories interrupted only by a one-point loss to Los Angeles on Thursday. Both teams had their regular lineups to start the game and no new injuries.

 

As is frequently the case, the matchups are interesting when we see cross-conference games, because these teams don’t run into each other very often. Minnesota primarily used Rebekkah Brunson on Delle Donne, and the Lynx forward did about as good a job as you can do. She was physical with the rookie, and stayed right in her face. Delle Done still hit some ridiculously tough jumpers in the first half, but she wasn’t getting anything easy.

 

With Delle Donne hiding as much as possible on the limited offensive threat of Janel McCarville, that left Swin Cash to try to cover Maya Moore. Cash did as well as she could, and her size and strength largely wiped out the occasional post-ups Moore has been running in the second half of the season. But Moore’s younger and more agile, and found some room to shoot around the perimeter to play a central part in Minnesota’s offense.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/13/2013: Sparks hold off Lynx as appetites whetted by spicy preview of potential Western Finals

 

Most of the major issues may have been decided already, but there’s still a little spice left in the WNBA’s regular season, as last night illustrated. There was an appetiser before the game everyone was looking forward to, but we’re going to skip straight to the main course. Details of the early game can be found lower down, for those who requite strict chronological order or who really enjoy their starters.

 

The main event saw the fifth and final meeting – in the regular season – of the Western Conference’s top two. Heading into the season, most saw a clear top three in the West, but Phoenix’s issues left Minnesota and Los Angeles to break away. The Sparks have slipped up a little more frequently over the course of the year, so the Lynx had already secured the #1 seed in the West before last night, but bragging rights were still on the line. And barring a first-round upset, these two teams will be seeing each other again in almost exactly two weeks’ time in the Western Conference Finals.

 

Both teams came in healthy, with their usual starting lineups, and almost inevitably it was Minnesota who got off to the quicker start. The perimeter of Lindsey Harding, Kristi Toliver and Alana Beard has matchup problems against the Lynx, and we’ve seen this several times before. They’re significantly smaller than Minnesota’s dangerous trio of Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, so guarding them is immediately difficult. It’s made even more so by the way Minnesota have been working on developing a post attack with their wings this season. That said, most of the early damage was done by Moore on Beard, which ought to be one of the safer pairings for LA. You still wonder if the Sparks might not be better off bringing either Harding or Toliver off the bench, and opening with a bigger wing like Jenna O’Hea or Marissa Coleman against the Lynx starters. Once Monica Wright comes into the game for Augustus or Moore, the Harding/Toliver pairing can cope – they both have someone on the floor they can cover. It’s just that initial lineup that gives them problems.

 

With Janel McCarville also happily taking and hitting the open jumpers Candace Parker was letting her have, Minnesota went out to a 15-8 lead midway through the first quarter. That quietly extended to 21-10 because LA had no offense besides Parker. She was effective backing down various defenders and finishing or even hitting a jump shot or two, and abused Devereaux Peters once the young post came off the bench for Minnesota. But absolutely no one was offering her any help for the Sparks. They were just watching her work, and missing shots when she occasionally gave up the ball.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/11/2013: Playoff contenders finalised as Mystics make it in; Mercury and Lynx wins cement West seeding

 

While they largely confirmed things that had become inevitable, the combination of last night’s three WNBA results cemented several elements of the upcoming playoffs. We now know exactly what’s coming in the Western Conference, and there’s only one unknown holding up the East. We might see a lot of players grabbing some rest over the next few days.

 

Washington Mystics 69 @ Indiana Fever 67

  • Washington came into this game still needing a win to confirm their playoff participation. Undoubtedly Mike Thibault and his squad were as aware as anyone that New York were incredibly unlikely to run the table and make them require that win, but earning your way into the postseason with a victory would feel much sweeter than waiting for the Liberty to lose. Sitting just one game ahead of the Mystics prior to this game, Indiana could claim at least the #3 seed with a win, but would drop into a tie with Washington if they lost. Their outstanding record against Chicago makes you wonder if they might not prefer the #4, but playing well and winning games heading into the playoffs was clearly worth more to them than trying to finagle the matchups. Otherwise Tamika Catchings would’ve taken the night off, and Erin Phillips wouldn’t have returned so quickly from her eye injury. They were still without Katie Douglas, however, despite reports that she was virtually ready to return.

 

  • There’s one important element to the Douglas situation that seems to have gone largely overlooked. Remember way back at the start of the season when Indiana were allowed to keep 12 players due to injuries, without ever seeming to establish who the ‘exception’ 12th was? Well at some point, it became clear that the 12th player was Jessica Breland. Unfortunately, the Fever appear to have painted themselves into a corner. Breland has become their only viable backup post behind Catchings and Erlana Larkins, with Jessica Davenport injured and Jasmine Hassell barely ever used. But their roster’s healthy enough now that when (and if) Douglas returns, Breland would have to be immediately released because the ‘hardship exception’ would no longer apply. So while Douglas has been their second-best player for several years, having her back for the postseason would mean going into the postseason with only Hassell to spell Catchings and Larkins (or Karima Christmas sliding over in an incredibly small lineup, in a role she hasn’t played all season). It’s an unfortunate Catch 22. Chicago avoided something similar by waiving Avery Warley 10 days ago, giving them time to cut someone else and re-sign her for the playoffs. Maybe Indiana should’ve done the same, but it’s too late now (there’s a 10-day waiting period between cutting someone and being able to re-sign them, and there are now fewer than 10 days left in the season). Keeping Breland may have become more important to Indiana than adding a likely half-fit Douglas to the playoff roster.

 

  • But back to last night’s game. Washington started well, looking for Kia Vaughn inside to use her height advantage on the Indiana posts, and penetrating far too often for Indiana head coach Lin Dunn’s liking. The Mystics get themselves into trouble sometimes by settling for jump shots, especially when there’s minimal ball movement before they just fire away. This was better than we’d seen in several recent performances.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/08/2013: Fever fight their way in, while Lynx continue to overwhelm Storm

 

The difficulties and complications of WNBA.com’s LiveAccess service over the weekend have made the contents of my articles a little confusing, so here’s what you can find below: details on Saturday’s games, plus bonus coverage of Friday night’s Indiana-Chicago matchup. Just to keep things chronological, we’ll start with that game, in the hope that some people are still interested in hearing about it, then roll into yesterday’s basketball. Coverage of Sunday’s games, including one particularly noteworthy explosion in an otherwise meaningless game, will be in tomorrow’s article as normal. On to the Bullet Point Breakdowns.

 

Indiana Fever 82 @ Chicago Sky 77

  • Indiana went into this game with work still to do in order to confirm their playoff spot. New York were in the process of losing yet another game, but they were still within range of catching the Fever. Chicago secured the #1 seed in the East the previous weekend, but were still playing for home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with Minnesota or Los Angeles, and trying to keep their momentum rolling into the playoffs. There was also a strong possibility that Indiana could be Chicago’s first-round playoff opponent, and the Fever have beaten up on the Sky with such regularity over the years that Chicago were looking for a win for mental reasons more than anything else.

 

  • Unfortunately for the Sky, point guard Courtney Vandersloot turned an ankle in warmups, and was held out of the game for precautionary reasons. It was absolutely the right decision, however minor the injury, considering the lack of real meaning to this game for Chicago – but it was still a disappointment to face the Fever without an important starter. Epiphanny Prince slid over to play the point, with Tamera Young coming into the starting lineup. They also had backup point guard Sharnee Zoll-Norman available for the first time in weeks, after recovering from her broken thumb. Indiana were still without Katie Douglas, and guard Erin Phillips was missing as well after being poked in the eye during their game against Atlanta a couple of nights earlier.

 

  • We’d only seen the marquee frontcourt matchup between Elena Delle Donne and Tamika Catchings once before this season – they’d missed one game each due to injury on the other occasions their teams clashed. As with the previous encounter, Catchings was nominally guarding Delle Donne at times, but Indiana’s defense was so fluid and switching so easily that the matchups were far from consistent. Delle Donne certainly wasn’t afraid of Catchings or her defensive reputation when she was lined up against the veteran star, attacking her off the dribble several times in the early going and having some success. She also set screens on Briann January multiple times, trying to force the switch and the resulting mismatch, and converted easily right over the top of January on more than one occasion.

 

  • However, while Delle Donne produced some points early on, and Sylvia Fowles was a presence in the paint at both ends of the floor, Indiana stayed right with Chicago and ultimately pulled out into a lead late in the first half. There’s one particular, incredibly basic way that Indiana use to create good looks against the Sky, and I’ve talked about it before. I call it ‘semi-penetration’, because the primary objective is rarely to get right to the rim or even deep into the paint. If a lane happens to open up, the driving Fever player will happily take it and carry on to the basket, but that’s not what usually happens. One player drives from the top of the arc – usually Tamika Catchings but several other Fever players do it as well – only aiming to get a step or two below the free throw line, and not really needing to beat her defender. The target is merely to entice the defender in the strong side corner to take a step or two towards the paint to offer help. Then the driver makes the easy kick-out to her teammate in the corner (or on the wing, both work) for a three she’s been given the room to shoot. It’s incredibly simple, but the help-defense principles drilled into defenses like Chicago’s always make that defender in the corner want to slide in and help. Briann January and Shavonte Zellous got into a rhythm hitting threes in the first half, and it helped carry Indiana’s offense even while Catchings couldn’t hit anything. The Fever led 44-34 at halftime.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/01/2013: Favourites all take care of business as playoff picture continues to clear

 

Four games on Saturday night in the WNBA, all four won in varying degrees of comfort by the favourites. So the playoff picture is continuing to resolve itself – mostly by default because we’re running out of games – but there weren’t exactly a lot of shocks to go around. With two weeks to go in the regular season, if you can’t make a pretty good guess at what’s coming by now, you haven’t been paying attention.

 

Los Angeles Sparks 80 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 67

  • At stake in this one: Los Angeles continue to chase Minnesota for the #1 seed in the West, coming into the day one game back. As a sideline, Chicago are right up with the pair of them for home-court advantage in a theoretical WNBA Finals. San Antonio were still in with a mathematical chance of chasing down Phoenix or Seattle for a playoff spot, albeit a very small chance. Bizarrely enough, a Silver Stars loss in this game would confirm Seattle’s place in the postseason, while Phoenix would still be catchable – despite Seattle sitting in fourth while Phoenix were in third. Schedules, tie-breakers and mathematics can be strange bedfellows.

 

  • LA had their usual starting lineup, and their roster as healthy as ever, but San Antonio began the game with yet another new starting unit. Danielle Robinson was still out with strained/sprained knee (the team have used both words to describe it), and now her replacement Davellyn Whyte was missing as well (reportedly with a foot problem). That shifted Shenise Johnson over alongside Jia Perkins in the backcourt, with Shameka Christon coming in to start on the wing. It’s a perimeter that had some success in their win over Tulsa the night before, but obviously their bench became even shorter.

 

  • While LA led by as many as 11, it was ultimately a fairly tight first half. The Sparks were looking to push whenever they could, but becoming a little ponderous and static when forced into halfcourt sets. San Antonio started slowly but came back into the game late in the first quarter through better defensive energy and Jia Perkins making plays on offense. Dan Hughes would love to have Perkins as his sixth woman energy from the bench, but the injuries have forced her into a much bigger role this season. She’s not always the most efficient scorer, but sometimes she can be electric.

 

  • The other place where San Antonio found success in the first half was on the offensive glass. With Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike, LA have a clear athleticism advantage in this matchup over players like Danielle Adams, Jayne Appel and Cathrine Kraayeveld. While Parker was doing her typical job of filling the stat-sheet in a number of areas, the Sparks were getting outworked on the glass and the Silver Stars were staying alive with second-chance opportunities. They took 11 more shots than LA in the first half, thanks to a 10-2 advantage in offensive rebounds, and it allowed the Silver Stars to trail only 35-30 at halftime.

 

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WNBA Today, 08/30/2013: Storm can taste playoffs, as Sun succumb yet again

 

Just one game in the WNBA last night, and with the Connecticut Sun as the visiting team the result never seemed to be in much doubt. The Sun are still without Allison Hightower and Kelly Faris due to injury, and Kara Lawson for family reasons. That’s on top of Asjha Jones and Danielle McCray, who’ve both missed the entire season. It’s too generous to Connecticut’s players and coaching staff to put all their problems this season down to those absences – especially when so many teams around the league have been fighting through similar issues – but obviously it’s made things much more difficult. However you distribute the blame, the Sun have been dreadful for the vast majority of the season.

 

Last night’s hosts the Seattle Storm have had their own key losses to deal with. Superstars Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird were ruled out for the entire year before the season began, forcing Brian Agler to piece together a roster from what he had left and what he could attract on the free agent market. Most prognosticators were not high on their chances of success before the season began – to say the least. But the Storm have come together as a team, worked hard for each other, and scratched and clawed their way to victories. Exactly like they’ve done under Agler in previous years whenever they’ve been missing key players. Last night’s game gave them a chance to push above .500 for the first time since the opening weeks of the season, and move within touching distance of confirming their spot in the playoffs.

 

The Storm have had their inconsistencies this season. Without elite stars to rely on, when their offense starts to break down, it can get ugly. Even in the important pair of games they’d just completed against struggling San Antonio, the Storm were awful in the first encounter and nearly managed to throw away the second. But at times recently they’ve flowed, and looked like they were growing more comfortable within their own offense. It’s led to an 8-4 record over their last 12 games. That’s the kind of form that’s more than enough to make them heavy favourites over Connecticut, and the first quarter went exactly as you’d expect. Seattle were effective in a variety of ways. Both Tina Thompson and Camille Little attacked inside, showing absolutely no respect for Kelsey Griffin’s defense (or the weak efforts that Tina Charles has been passing off as interior help defense this season). Meanwhile Shekinna Stricklen hit a trio of open three-pointers within the first six minutes of the game. By my estimation, the Sun starting perimeter of Renee Montgomery, Tan White and Kalana Greene were each responsible for one of those triples. So at least everyone was equally culpable for failing to cover their assignments. Seattle led by as many as 12 in the first quarter.

 

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WNBA Today, 08/28/2013: Storm squeak past Silver Stars to reach brink of postseason; Western elite beats Eastern also-rans

 

We’re starting to hit that point in the season. Where everyone knows which teams are good, and which teams are on the brink of giving up on the year as a dead loss. So last night’s three WNBA games saw two very predictable results that maintained the status quo, and just one tight, interesting contest. We’ll be starting with that one, obviously.

 

Seattle Storm 72 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 71

  • This was another of those double-features the WNBA has introduced this season, where teams play twice in the same city within barely 48 hours. So everyone had fresh memories of the dreadful game on Sunday where Seattle barely showed up and got what they deserved. After the Storm lost that game, this one became very important. It tied the season-series between the teams at 2-2, and pulled San Antonio within three games of the Storm in the standings. Another win for San Antonio would both narrow the gap to two, and secure the head-to-head tie-breaker over Seattle. The squads were identical, both sides starting the same units as point guard Danielle Robinson continues to miss out for San Antonio with her strained knee.

 

  • Robinson’s replacement Davellyn Whyte was firing and hitting from outside early on. That’s the one advantage Whyte gives you over D-Rob – she’s not afraid to fire away from deep, and occasionally she’ll get hot. Robinson rarely lets fly from further than 18-feet.

 

  • As has often been the case this year, Seattle started slowly. Brian Agler called his usual early timeout – it’s virtually a tradition at this point – and they pulled themselves out of it with the help of Tina Thompson. From there, the entire first half stayed very tight. Thompson was the leading light for Seattle, hitting little hooks and fadeaways inside or popping out beyond the arc for her trademark deep threes. It gave the Storm a presence and a primary option that they never really found on Sunday in the previous game, and their energy on the glass was important as well.

 

  • Between Whyte, Jia Perkins and Danielle Adams, San Antonio were hitting enough shots to keep pace. Even with a 19-7 deficit on the boards, they had the game tied at 31-31 at halftime.

 

  • The second half was a different experience. The game became more frantic and helter-skelter at times, with one key move from San Antonio head coach Dan Hughes having a big effect on the game. In an effort to handle Thompson and track her movement better, the Silver Stars began to treat her as a small forward. Instead of trying to guard her with Danielle Adams, who had to chase Thompson around screens and try to follow her out when she popped beyond the arc, they gave Shenise Johnson and Shameka Christon the assignment. That left Adams on either Shekinna Stricklen or Noelle Quinn. Obviously it was a risk to some extent. Adams is relatively light on her feet, but she’s not used to guarding perimeter players. And Thompson is still capable of posting up, so Hughes was trusting Johnson and Christon to be able to handle that. To a large extent it worked for San Antonio, as Thompson definitely cooled off in the second half.

 

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WNBA Today, 08/27/2013: Sunday, Bloody (awful) Sunday

 

Sunday was not an entertaining day of WNBA basketball. It was filled with sloppy play, teams who barely showed up, and other teams winning almost by default. And then it exploded into a frenzy of craziness right at the end. So this column’s going to follow the same path. We’ll cover all the tedium first, and build to the big finish. I won’t hate you if you skip to the end.

 

Seattle Storm 64 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 70

  • As mentioned in my pick for this game in the last column, I couldn’t understand why so much money seemed to be flooding in on San Antonio. Seattle’s Temeka Johnson had looked ready to return before the end of their previous game despite taking a hit to the head (and was indeed fit to start this one). Meanwhile, opposing point guard Danielle Robinson missed San Antonio’s last game with a sprained right knee (and ultimately missed this one as well). Seattle have been the better team during the season, and have even produced a little consistency lately, beating Indiana, Los Angeles and Phoenix in their last three games. San Antonio have been fighting, but pretty poor all year. Even on the road, Seattle seemed like they ought to be favourites. Of course, maybe my picks are offered free of charge for a reason.

 

  • Seattle were atrocious in the first half of this game (they were pretty bad throughout, but let’s look the opening 20 minutes first). After tearing LA and Phoenix apart for long stretches of recent games, they looked completely bemused by San Antonio’s defense, and utterly incapable of creating anything decent against it. The shot clock ran down without the offense going anywhere, they forced up bad shots under pressure because they couldn’t find anything else, and then the turnovers started piling up. It’s a typical reaction when you can’t break a defense down – especially for the Storm, but really for any team. You start forcing passes into tiny holes or even holes that never existed in the first place, and they become cheap, easy takeaways for the opponent. It was a return to the Storm from much of last season, where constantly handing over possession consistently killed their offense. Although, as long as the turnover went out of bounds or bounced around for a while so Seattle could get back and set their defense, it didn’t make much difference. They weren’t hitting anything when they held on to the ball long enough to shoot anyway.

 

  • San Antonio weren’t exactly a smooth-running machine themselves. The defense was obviously doing the job, shutting down Seattle, but the offense was pretty mediocre. They beat the Storm in transition a couple of times by running harder down the floor, and Jia Perkins made a few shots, but that was about it. They pulled ahead largely because Seattle couldn’t score. The Silver Stars did get a few nice plays from Shenise Johnson, who had to play some point guard with Robinson out and Davellyn Whyte picking up some early fouls. It probably won’t hurt Johnson to spend some extra time with the ball in her hands, making decisions and making plays. She needs the work, and she needs the responsibility to force her to step up. It might be just her second year in the league, but she’s supposed to become a big piece of the puzzle for this franchise going forward – not just a decent complementary player. San Antonio led 34-24 at halftime.

 

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