2013 WNBA Finals Preview: Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream – Part 2, Key Themes and Factors, and the Final Verdict

 

Now for the topics, trends, decisions and debates that are likely to decide the WNBA Finals, or are at least worth paying attention to as the series goes along. Many of them were touched upon in Part 1, where we took a closer look at the personnel involved, but now we’ll get more in depth. Then, just for fun, I’ll offer up a prediction. Although with the way it’s been going for me with picks this year in the postseason, you might want to go the other way.

 

Big or small?

 

Dream head coach Fred Williams made a move for the Eastern Finals that surprised me with its sheer boldness and willingness to be proactive. He often seems to spend games watching them drift by, including in the first-round where his most meaningful move was forced upon him by Le’coe Willingham’s injury. But he opened the series against Indiana with his small lineup, essentially featuring four perimeter players – Angel McCoughtry is generally considered the power forward because she’s the tallest of the four, but they’re basically all guards and wings. It proved to be an astute move, as their offense sliced through the Fever at will, and consistently looked far more effective than at any stage in the previous series against Washington. Now he has to decide what to do against the Lynx, because Minnesota are not the Indiana Fever. They don’t have a virtual perimeter player at power forward – they have Rebekkah Brunson, who might not be a traditional post-up threat, but she’s big enough and nasty enough to take advantage of a smaller player in the paint and on the glass.

 

So does Williams concede that his small lineup can’t defend the Lynx well enough, and go back to a more traditional lineup, with either Willingham or Aneika Henry at power forward? Probably not. Maybe, at times, we’ll see two Dream bigs together in this series. He threw that option away entirely against the Fever, but if Brunson starts dominating the glass, or Williams just wants to shake the Lynx up a little, it might be a more useful option against Minnesota. But we saw in the regular season game between these teams on August 20th that the Dream’s small lineup can both survive defensively, and succeed offensively against the Lynx. Atlanta will want to keep their pace high, and maintain the attacking mentality from the Indiana series, so I’d expect McCoughtry either to start at power forward, or slide there pretty early on.

 

Then it becomes a case of what either team does to handle the matchups. Minnesota can make everything nice and simple by going small themselves, shifting Maya Moore to power forward in a similar move to Atlanta with McCoughtry. Then the defensive assignments are simple. But Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve won’t allow Williams to dictate the action like that. Instead we’ll see Brunson defending McCoughtry – Brunson did an effective job in that role in the regular season game I mentioned – while forcing Atlanta to handle the opposing mismatches on the other end. Either McCoughtry has to defend Brunson, which is plausible for a while but probably not something you want to see for an entire series, or Williams has to get creative.

 

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2013 WNBA Finals Preview: Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream – Part 1, Match-ups and Challenges

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Minnesota Lynx (26-8) vs Atlanta Dream (17-17)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.46 (1st in WNBA) – 95.19 (9th)

Points Conceded per 100 possessions: 94.55 (3rd) – 93.2 (1st)

Rebound percentage; .522 (2nd) – .503 (4th)

 

Season series between the teams: Tied 1-1

07/09 @Min, Lynx win 94-72 (no Augustus or Hayes, Lyttle’s last game this season)

08/20 @Atl, Dream win 88-75 (available players were as expected for this series)

 

—–

 

Here we go again, everybody. The Minnesota Lynx are in the WNBA Finals for the third consecutive season, looking to regain the title that they lost a year ago. The Atlanta Dream are back in the championship series for the third time in four years. The franchises clashed in the 2011 Finals, with relatively similar rosters – and the Lynx won in a sweep. But that feels like a long time ago, and a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. The 2013 regular season, which saw the Dream finish .500 while the Lynx were their typical dominant selves, is largely irrelevant now. So a series from a couple of years ago definitely can’t be considered particularly important. Everyone starts the Finals 0-0, and the Dream’s confidence should be high after a sweep of Indiana to win the East, where they went some way towards reestablishing their identity. The track record of the Lynx makes them worthy favourites for this series, but they won’t have things all their own way.

 

Let’s start out on the perimeter, where you’ll arguably find the strength of both these teams. The Lynx have one of the strongest perimeter trios the women’s game has ever seen. Lindsay Whalen is a consummate point guard, the classic ‘coach on the floor’ who’ll run everything for head coach Cheryl Reeve and get the ball where it needs to go. But Whalen’s also more than capable of attacking the defense for her own points, as we saw in the recent Game 1 against Phoenix, where her scoring helped take the game over. The strength of Minnesota’s wings only makes things easier for Whalen, because typically opponents have to use their stronger perimeter defenders to contain Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, leaving Whalen with whoever’s left. In this series, that’ll likely be Jasmine Thomas and some Alex Bentley. Both Thomas and Bentley have had their moments this season, playing their parts in Atlanta’s backcourt attack and occasionally getting hot, but they’ll need to at least compete with Whalen and try to stay in front of her as much as possible. Everyone gambles in Atlanta’s defense in search of steals, but they still need to hold their ground and prevent Whalen from getting into a flow that dominates the rhythm of the game.

 

Then there’s Moore and Augustus. After a couple of years settling into the league – where she was already impressive – Moore took another step this season and definitively moved past Augustus as the most valuable of the Lynx wings. She can do a little bit of everything, stuffing the stat-sheet in a way Augustus never really has, while continuing to be a remarkable scoring threat from all over the floor. She’ll rise up and shoot over the defense when you think she’s covered, and just score anyway, or create points by running the floor hard and working on the glass. Augustus is still just as dangerous as a scorer, will break out for points on the run just like Moore, or pull up for jumpers over anyone. She’s also developed a little more of an inside game this year, which we’ll undoubtedly see her break out at times in this series, especially if Atlanta try to guard her with a significantly smaller player. Armintie Herrington is a strong and long enough defender to trouble Augustus on post-ups or drives, but if they try to get away with Thomas, Bentley or even Tiffany Hayes for extended stretches, Augustus has more ways to attack them these days.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/30/2013: Dream and Lynx complete sweeps to set up 2011 Finals rematch

 

Unlike the first-round, where we had three upsets out of four opening games to start the 2013 WNBA playoffs, both higher seeds held serve to begin the conference finals. So Sunday afternoon saw the lower seeds trying to keep their seasons alive back on their home floors. While there had been differing levels of defeat in their respective Game 1s, both Indiana and Phoenix had obvious things they had to fix if they wanted to avoid packing their bags and waving goodbye to their title chances.

 

As usual, we opened in the East, where the issue for the Fever was pretty obvious. Atlanta were ridiculously efficient offensively in Game 1 of the series, repeatedly slicing through Indiana’s defense after breaking defenders down off the dribble. Turnovers were a problem for the Fever as well, but they didn’t ignite that many Atlanta fastbreaks – it was largely a basic case of failing to contain penetration in the halfcourt, and everything spiralling from there. Indiana’s offense had been good enough if their defense had been anywhere near its typical level.

 

Game 2 began in a very similar vein. Indiana’s offense was productive enough, with Tamika Catchings hitting a couple of shots, and the team getting inside and drawing some fouls. The whistles even seemed to be going their way. but Atlanta were still piercing their defense with far too much ease. All afternoon we saw the Dream run a simple weave action out on the perimeter, which virtually all defenses – including Indiana’s – cover by simply switching assignments. You almost become the top half of a 3-2 zone and just cover the space, watching the handoffs happen in front of you. But then the Dream would toss in a screen at one of the elbows, and suddenly there was enough space to drive a bus down one side of the lane. Atlanta were again doing a good job of spacing the floor, but not in the typical way teams ‘space’. You normally do that with shooters, who can take a kick-out pass and knock down a shot if the defense drops away from them. The Dream’s small lineup – they’d obviously stuck with the four-perimeter-player format that worked so well in Game 1 – just spread out and created as much room as possible for each other to drive. Indiana were still sticking too close to them, failing to clog the lane, and allowing Atlanta to beat them off the dribble.

 

However, the Dream were missing a little more when they made it to the rim. Indiana were doing a slightly better job of at least challenging the finishes inside, putting the Dream drivers under pressure, and forcing misses. Atlanta had grown in confidence, and were attacking with speed in transition, but the misses allowed Indiana to keep pace and the score was tied at 19-19 at the end of the first quarter.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/27/2013: Dream hold off Fever as defense disappears out East; Mercury kiss cheeks while Lynx kick ass in West

 

In some ways, the prospects for our Eastern and Western Conference Finals in the WNBA this season suggested they would go to type. In the East, we had two teams known for their ability to pressurise and force turnovers. One was the best defense in the league this season, the other has been known as a shut-down defensive squad for years. A classic Eastern defensive battle was on the cards. In the West, we had the team with far and away the best offense in the WNBA this season, against a team known as all-offense, all-the-time for over six years (albeit with some recent hints of defensive interest). So a run-and-gun Western shootout, right? As it turned out, we got the contrast – just not in quite the way that history might’ve suggested.

 

The evening began in Atlanta, with the Indiana Fever starting another series on the road. That’s what happens when you slide into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record after a constant struggle throughout the regular season. But the Dream had survived problems of their own, collapsing from a 10-1 start to the season and then having to come from 1-0 down in the first-round of the playoffs to fight past Washington. Whoever ultimately makes it out of the East is going to have worked through some significant difficulties to get there.

 

Dream head coach Fred Williams made a surprisingly active and ballsy move to open the series. After junking his small lineup entirely against the Mystics in the first-round, and making it through that series in part because of his team’s size and offensive rebounding, he immediately went small against Indiana. Both Le’coe Willingham (who started the Washington series at power forward, then missed Games 2 and 3 due to a knee problem) and Aneika Henry (who replaced Willingham) were in uniform and available, but both began the series on the bench. Instead, Angel McCoughtry slid over to the theoretical power forward position, while Armintie Herrington regained her starting spot alongside Tiffany Hayes and Jasmine Thomas on the perimeter. Essentially, it puts four perimeter players on the court with center Erika de Souza. It’s a lineup they used effectively as a change-up during the regular season, especially after Sancho Lyttle got hurt and made their ‘natural’ lineups less effective. We were always likely to see it in this series because Indiana are so small these days with Tamika Catchings at power forward. But it’s the first time Williams has ever used it to start a game. In some ways, it’s the exact opposite of how the Washington series began, where Mike Thibault and the Mystics dictated the action throughout Game 1 and Williams never seemed to have an answer. For once, he had the guts to throw the first punch.

 

All of that said, the game didn’t begin particularly well for Atlanta. They looked confused on which way they were going on the opening tip, handing Catchings an uncontested layup to start the game. Then Hayes jacked an ugly three on Atlanta’s first possession, and Catchings continued to light them up for the next few minutes of the game. The plan appeared to be to guard her with Hayes – McCoughtry was hiding on Karima Christmas, as expected – and Catchings apparently wasn’t impressed by this idea. She hit jumpers, or attacked Hayes off the dribble and finished inside. It didn’t look like Hayes could handle her. When the game restarted after the first timeout five minutes into the opening quarter, Herrington had switched over onto Catchings, and Plan A appeared to have been thrown out the window.

 

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2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Western Conference Finals – Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Minnesota Lynx (26-8) vs Phoenix Mercury (19-15)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.46 (1st in WNBA) – 99.46 (4th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 94.55 (3rd) – 100.4 (10th)

Rebound percentage: .522 (2nd) – .486 (10th)

 

Season series between the teams: Minnesota won 5-0

06/06 @Min, Lynx win 99-79

06/19 @Pho, Lynx win 80-69

07/07 @Min, Lynx win 91-59

07/21 @Pho, Lynx win 82-77

07/24 @Min, Lynx win 81-69

 

—–

 

For all the talents of the Los Angeles Sparks, in many ways this was the matchup that everyone wanted to see. In one corner we have the dominant Minnesota Lynx. They were a powerhouse for the third year in a row, once again finishing with the best record in the WNBA. They’ve got three years of chemistry, the smoothest offense and one of the most cohesive defenses in the league. They’ve even got a little bit of extra incentive this season, trying to regain their crown after slipping up against Indiana in the Finals last year when heavily favoured. They’re the ones who were always meant to be here. In the opposite corner, the team who were practically crowned before they set foot on a basketball floor, then had to re-shape themselves after things didn’t go to plan. This isn’t the old Phoenix Mercury, the team that lost the last 12 games they’ve played against the Lynx. Russ Pennell made some changes after he took over in midseason, and now ESPN gets the leader of their ‘Three to See’ in the conference finals after all. We’ve got the reigning champs who were almost forgotten, against the team everyone rushed to anoint as their successors. The Sparks might be out, but Hollywood easily could’ve written this script.

 

Let’s start with what we know. The Lynx are very, very good. They had some occasional struggles getting past Seattle in the first-round, but that was a veteran team with exceptional discipline who know how to make a game messy. And Minnesota still held on to beat them for the sixth straight time this year. With Lindsay Whalen at the point, and Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore on the wings, the Lynx have arguably the most dangerous perimeter trio that the WNBA has ever seen. They can fill it up from outside, they can drive past you, Augustus and Moore have both worked on their post game, and in transition they’re even scarier than the LA team Phoenix just snuck past. This has been one of the central problems for the Mercury in the past in dealing with Minnesota – even if they managed to get their own offense rolling, they couldn’t stop the Lynx to save their lives. It was a team that could play at both ends of the floor against a team that only showed up at one.

 

But while Minnesota have those 12 consecutive wins over Phoenix stretching back to 2011, they’re yet to face the Russ Pennell Mercury. Since taking over he’s gotten the team to engage on the defensive end, and at least expend the energy required to put up a fight when they don’t have the ball. It’s not always been perfect – it takes a while to remember how to follow defensive concepts, and some players on the roster are just basic bad defenders – but they’ve been competitive ever since he took over. Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve will have her team prepared for the changes in the Mercury, but you can never entirely understand what you’re going to face until you see them on the floor. In the end, maybe it was a positive for Phoenix that they played all five regular season games against Minnesota before the All-Star break. It helped get Corey Gaines fired, and the Lynx never got a taste of the new Mercury.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/23/2013: Fever and Lynx advance; Sky exit with tails between their legs, Storm and Thompson with heads held high

 

In the first round of every set of playoffs, it’s the matchups between the top seeds and bottom seeds that are supposed to finish first. We spend all season working out which is the best team in their conference and which just about creeps in by barely escaping the lottery. So in some ways, Sunday’s WNBA games went just as they were supposed to. But they arrived at that destination in very different ways.

 

The opener in the East saw the top seed already in deep trouble. After a 24-10 regular season, all the factors that led Chicago fans to hope to avoid Indiana in the playoffs had come home to roost in the opening game. Experience, the ability to raise their game to a true playoff level, coaching, and execution had allowed the Indiana Fever to steal Game 1 on the road, and come home with the chance to clinch. The Sky had proven all season that they were capable of beating anyone, but it was going to take a significantly improved performance to keep their season alive.

 

The starting lineups were the same as Game 1, with the only added information since the opener being that Katie Douglas will apparently miss the entire postseason due to her back problem. So, just like last year, Indiana will have to make their postseason run with nine bodies (or fewer, if someone else gets hurt as well). In case you were wondering, no, they’re not allowed to re-sign Jessica Breland (or anyone else) now that Douglas has gone down. You’re stuck with the 11 players on your roster at the start of the playoffs for the entire postseason.

 

Disappointingly, the Sky didn’t look much different from Game 1 either. There was a frantic pace to the opening minutes, which was presumably at Chicago head coach Pokey Chatman’s request, but it led to mistakes, turnovers and blown layups more than anything good for the Sky. Defensively, they didn’t seem to have made many adjustments. Karima Christmas and Shavonte Zellous missed threes on Indiana’s opening possessions, which might’ve raised Chicago hopes that they’d have a chance simply due to the Fever’s shooting regressing to the mean. Then Tamika Catchings semi-penetrated, Epiphanny Prince was drawn in from the short corner, the kick went to Zellous, and she drilled the three from the corner. Exactly the same as Game 1, and we were right back there again.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/21/2013: Fever fire and outshoot sloppy Sky, before Lynx finally end the run of upsets

 

After a couple of upsets shifted the balance of the WNBA playoffs on opening night, the second evening began with the series that always looked most likely to provide a lower seed surprise. The reigning champion Indiana Fever had struggled through the regular season and finished with a 16-18 record, but they were 3-1 against Chicago, and have repeatedly beaten the Sky over the years. When several players were given the night off for Indiana’s final regular season game, it became pretty clear that the Fever were happy to face Chicago in the first-round. The Sky may have been the best team in the East this season, but the Fever weren’t the least bit afraid to take them on.

 

However, the task appeared to become more difficult for Indiana before tip-off, when Katie Douglas was ruled out due to more back pain. The Fever had ended up losing out on two counts – Douglas’s return forced them to release backup post Jessica Breland, and now they didn’t have Douglas either. On the bright side, after a season of filling-in and stepping up quite nicely, Karima Christmas was well-prepared to slide back into the starting role that Douglas would’ve taken. Chicago had their regular group to start the game.

 

The first punch in the coaching battle was thrown by Indiana’s Lin Dunn, with a shift in the defensive matchups. The Fever switch enough that the initial assignments don’t always matter that much, but they had Tamika Catchings on Elena Delle Donne, Christmas on Epiphanny Prince, and Shavonte Zellous on Swin Cash to open the game. Christmas had done most of the work on Delle Donne in the regular season clashes between these teams, with Catchings on Cash and Zellous on Prince, in more ‘natural’ matchups along positional lines. They were obviously happy to take the minimal risk that Cash would use her size and strength to take advantage of being guarded by a perimeter player (and they were proven right). Maybe the changes came from preparing for the series with Douglas in mind as a starter rather than Christmas, but it’s equally possible that Dunn just wanted that extra little edge that nudging your opponent off-balance can provide.

 

The Sky tried to go inside to Sylvia Fowles, early and often. But Erlana Larkins was doing her typical impressive job of using her body to put Fowles under pressure, making it hard for Fowles to get deep position in the paint and equally tough to finish whenever she did receive the ball. It was very hard work for Big Syl inside early on. Fortunately for Chicago, Delle Donne drew some fouls to head to the free throw line, and exploited Indiana’s switching a couple of times for three-point plays over Briann January on the low block. Chicago’s offense was surviving okay.

 

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2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Western Conference First Round – Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Minnesota (26-8) vs Seattle (17-17)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 106.46 (1st in WNBA (by a mile)) – 95.71 (7th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 94.55 (3rd) – 98.73 (9th)

Rebound percentage: .522 (2nd) – .489 (9th)

 

Season series between the teams: Minnesota won 4-0

08/04 @Min, Lynx won 90-72

08/31 @Min, Lynx won 97-74

09/07 @Sea, Lynx won 75-60

09/10 @Sea, Lynx won 73-60

 

—–

 

As we’ve heard virtually every commentator and analyst across the league proclaim in the second half of the season, “no one expected Seattle to be in this position”. Of course that’s not entirely true – in one of my rare moments of insight, I had the Storm making the playoffs in my preseason predictions, and in fact even had them facing Minnesota in the first-round. That prediction was based on the simple knowledge that over the years, whichever key players happened to be missing on a given night, Brian Agler’s Storm teams found a way to win basketball games. The team defense is there, the collective effort and organisation is there, and they don’t give up. So if anyone is going to give Seattle a chance in this series, it’s going to be me, right?

 

The problem is, it’s incredibly hard to come up with defensible arguments that give the Storm a prayer in this series. Minnesota have been a dominant team yet again this year, led by the wing scoring from Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, along with the leadership and attacking of Lindsay Whalen at the point. Then there’s still the athleticism and rebounding of Rebekkah Brunson and the smarts and passing of Janel McCarville inside, and one of the most aggressive and effective team defenses in the game – plus the additional chemistry of their core (besides McCarville) having now been together for several years. It’s a Lynx team that loves to play up-tempo and run by you in transition, but can also execute in the halfcourt and create good looks at the basket. They’re a nightmare to handle.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/15/2013: Lynx seal WNBA’s best record yet again by beating Sky; tributes paid to Warrior Princess

 

Considering how many meaningless games we tend to have to sit through at the end of regular seasons – in all sports – the WNBA schedulers couldn’t have scripted last night much better. A virtual playoff between the top two teams in the league for home-court advantage throughout the postseason, then a fond farewell to a legend overshadowing the terrible game that completed the evening. That’s a pretty good penultimate night for the regular season schedule.

 

Chicago came into Minnesota having had to work pretty hard to bring meaning to the encounter. Despite sealing the #1 seed in the East some time ago, Pokey Chatman has continued to play her stars for heavy minutes in the interest of building momentum heading into the playoffs, and maybe grabbing home-court over the West as well. Most recently, that included a win over Atlanta on Friday night where Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles played a combined 76 minutes and 34 seconds. Minnesota is not where you want to be flying on the second half of a tiring back-to-back. 14-2 at home coming into this game, the Lynx have continued to roll down the stretch, with the usual string of victories interrupted only by a one-point loss to Los Angeles on Thursday. Both teams had their regular lineups to start the game and no new injuries.

 

As is frequently the case, the matchups are interesting when we see cross-conference games, because these teams don’t run into each other very often. Minnesota primarily used Rebekkah Brunson on Delle Donne, and the Lynx forward did about as good a job as you can do. She was physical with the rookie, and stayed right in her face. Delle Done still hit some ridiculously tough jumpers in the first half, but she wasn’t getting anything easy.

 

With Delle Donne hiding as much as possible on the limited offensive threat of Janel McCarville, that left Swin Cash to try to cover Maya Moore. Cash did as well as she could, and her size and strength largely wiped out the occasional post-ups Moore has been running in the second half of the season. But Moore’s younger and more agile, and found some room to shoot around the perimeter to play a central part in Minnesota’s offense.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/13/2013: Sparks hold off Lynx as appetites whetted by spicy preview of potential Western Finals

 

Most of the major issues may have been decided already, but there’s still a little spice left in the WNBA’s regular season, as last night illustrated. There was an appetiser before the game everyone was looking forward to, but we’re going to skip straight to the main course. Details of the early game can be found lower down, for those who requite strict chronological order or who really enjoy their starters.

 

The main event saw the fifth and final meeting – in the regular season – of the Western Conference’s top two. Heading into the season, most saw a clear top three in the West, but Phoenix’s issues left Minnesota and Los Angeles to break away. The Sparks have slipped up a little more frequently over the course of the year, so the Lynx had already secured the #1 seed in the West before last night, but bragging rights were still on the line. And barring a first-round upset, these two teams will be seeing each other again in almost exactly two weeks’ time in the Western Conference Finals.

 

Both teams came in healthy, with their usual starting lineups, and almost inevitably it was Minnesota who got off to the quicker start. The perimeter of Lindsey Harding, Kristi Toliver and Alana Beard has matchup problems against the Lynx, and we’ve seen this several times before. They’re significantly smaller than Minnesota’s dangerous trio of Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, so guarding them is immediately difficult. It’s made even more so by the way Minnesota have been working on developing a post attack with their wings this season. That said, most of the early damage was done by Moore on Beard, which ought to be one of the safer pairings for LA. You still wonder if the Sparks might not be better off bringing either Harding or Toliver off the bench, and opening with a bigger wing like Jenna O’Hea or Marissa Coleman against the Lynx starters. Once Monica Wright comes into the game for Augustus or Moore, the Harding/Toliver pairing can cope – they both have someone on the floor they can cover. It’s just that initial lineup that gives them problems.

 

With Janel McCarville also happily taking and hitting the open jumpers Candace Parker was letting her have, Minnesota went out to a 15-8 lead midway through the first quarter. That quietly extended to 21-10 because LA had no offense besides Parker. She was effective backing down various defenders and finishing or even hitting a jump shot or two, and abused Devereaux Peters once the young post came off the bench for Minnesota. But absolutely no one was offering her any help for the Sparks. They were just watching her work, and missing shots when she occasionally gave up the ball.

 

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