WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Finals: Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Minnesota Lynx (#1 seed, 27-7) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (#2 seed, 24-10)

 

Regular season series: Tied 2-2

05/24 @Min: Lynx 92-84

07/05 @L.A.: Sparks 96-90

09/04 @Min: Lynx 88-77

09/20 @L.A.: Sparks 92-76

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It seems like we’ve been heading for this clash in the 2012 Western Conference Finals for a while. From the start of the season, Los Angeles looked reenergised by a healthy Candace Parker, their new rookie stud, and a new head coach. Minnesota looked just as good as last year, when they swept their way to a WNBA championship. When San Antonio fell off a little after the Olympic break this matchup became even more likely, but their paths through the first-round differed significantly. While some lapses in concentration meant they had to fight it out in the closing minutes of each game, the Sparks finished off the Silver Stars 2-0 and were finished by Saturday afternoon. The Lynx, on the other hand, had a battle royale with Seattle and needed a last-second Storm miss on Tuesday night to secure their spot in this series. Minnesota were the favourites heading into the playoffs, and they still are in the eyes of the bookmakers. But a little extra doubt has been cast on proceedings since the crunch games began.

However, this will be a very different task from the first-round for both teams. Minnesota faced a Storm squad built on its defense, which kept them out of the paint and broke their rhythm offensively. While first-year Sparks head coach Carol Ross arrived from Atlanta with a reputation for defense, this LA team doesn’t have the defensive solidity of the Storm. They’ve often struggled to rotate and recover to fill gaps created by pick-and-rolls or basic off-ball movement. The problem for the Lynx is that those aspects of their offense seemed to disappear against Seattle. They were endlessly settling for perimeter jumpers, rather than trying to penetrate the defense. Sometimes that works out fine, because players like Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore are some of the best shooters in the game, but even for them a 15-foot jumper is a lower percentage shot than a layup. Minnesota need to appreciate quickly that they’re facing a less competent, less cohesive defense, and get back to picking it apart with their usual smooth passing and off-ball movement. They need quicker, easier offense than we saw throughout the Storm series.

LA were dealing with San Antonio’s quick, small perimeter guards and limited inside presence in the first round. Now they’re up against a team that plays far more solid interior defense, and has a hell of a lot more size and physicality to throw at them on the perimeter. The LA backcourt of Kristi Toliver and Alana Beard was facing diminutive players like Danielle Robinson, Becky Hammon and Jia Perkins, and Toliver/Beard shot 32-54 (59%) combined across the series. Now they’ll be trying to score over or around Lindsay Whalen, Augustus and Moore, which should make things rather more difficult. While the Lynx switch freely on the perimeter, we’ll have to wait and see how they target and attack LA on the defensive end. Augustus was tasked with tailing Sue Bird in the first round, and may well get first crack at slowing down Toliver in this series. Her size and length could trouble the Sparks gunner, and unlike San Antonio it doesn’t create an awkward mismatch elsewhere on the floor. Whalen can handle Beard if she has to. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 10/03/2012: Crucial deciders produce heartbreak and elation in equal measure

It’d be nice if the WNBA’s playoff series could be longer, purely because this is where the basketball becomes truly exciting. But the one benefit of playing best-of-three is the increased likelihood of games like the encounters we saw last night. Deciding games for all the marbles, where everything’s on the line, and it’s win or go home. These are the truly gripping contests, the games that leave the lasting memories after the season is long gone. This is where the spotlight truly shines brightest, and it’s time to step up.

The evening began back in Indiana, after two road wins had forced a Game 3 between the Fever and Dream. Atlanta had failed to close out the series in their own building, but they had the confidence of knowing that they’d won here only four days earlier, and pulled off a string of playoff upsets over the last couple of years. Indiana were still buzzing from the victory they managed to keep the series alive on Sunday.

The starting lineups were as for Game 2, which meant the Fever were sticking with Erin Phillips in the backcourt and Erlana Larkins at center. Hardly a surprise, considering how effective the lineup changes had been in Game 2. It continued straight through into the early sequences of Game 3. Atlanta were primarily throwing up jumpers, the sort of shots that Indiana would be happy to let them take all night long. Meanwhile Indiana were slicing into the defense via drives or solid ball movement, and creating far higher percentage shots. This was how the Fever came out on top in Game 2, and it led to a quick 9-2 lead.

After the improved rebounding from Indiana and superb performance of point guard Briann January in Game 2, Atlanta head coach Fred Williams had a couple of twists to his defense for Game 3. He switched his posts defensively, letting Erika de Souza take Tamika Catchings in the early minutes while Sancho Lyttle was on Erlana Larkins. It put a big, bulky defender on Catchings, who hadn’t been shooting well for much of the series (meaning the Dream weren’t too worried about her simply firing over de Souza before she could get out to challenge). It also, theoretically, should’ve allowed Lyttle to freelance a little more and disrupt all over the floor, because Larkins poses less of a direct offensive threat than Catchings. There was also a change on the perimeter, where Armintie Price slid over to guard January and hopefully slow her down, moving Lindsey Harding on to Phillips and Angel McCoughtry over to guard Katie Douglas. Price is a longer defender than Harding, so had more chance to make life difficult for January, plus it should’ve helped save Harding’s energy to contribute more offensively. They were reasonable moves.

The problem was that, despite her high reputation as a defender, McCoughtry couldn’t restrict Douglas the same way Price had in the first two games. Douglas shot 5-18 combined in the previous two games, and only played 18 minutes in Game 2 because other options were more effective for Indiana. Game 3 saw her get off to a much better start, with a couple of threes and some points in transition in the first quarter. This wasn’t going to be another invisible performance from Catchings’s usual key sidekick. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 10/01/2012: A night of drama forces deciding games

I have a long-standing theory that the NFL has become the most popular American sport because every game means more. People in the modern world, where there are so many other options begging for our attention, don’t want to waste their time with 82-game or 162-game regular seasons, where each individual contest is almost meaningless. Even with just 34, the WNBA became a bit of a slog this year, because most of the important matters were decided long before the end. But Sunday offered up two examples of why we all watch these wonderful sports. This is what we wait for through all those dreary games. Crucial contests where everything’s on the line, and no one’s ever going to quit.

We opened up in Atlanta, where Indiana had made their lives very difficult. After dropping Game 1 at home, the Fever needed to steal back Game 2 on the road just to keep their season alive. Indiana head coach Lin Dunn made a brave move, because the easy option for any head coach in the playoffs is just to keep riding what worked in the regular season. Instead, she shook up her starting lineup, going with the group that had almost pulled off a remarkable comeback in Game 1. Erin Phillips came in for Shavonte Zellous in the backcourt, and Erlana Larkins replaced Tammy Sutton-Brown at center. It made them smaller, but quicker and more aggressive. It also put a natural rebounder in the paint to join Tamika Catchings in the fight on the glass. After losing the rebounding battle 40-29 in Game 1, that was obviously a concern. Larkins is undersized for a post, but she makes up for it with pure hustle and boundless energy. Atlanta, of course, had the same starting five as in Game 1. Why change a successful formula?

From the very early moments, Indiana had more energy and drive to their play than in Game 1. They were pushing the ball down court with speed, driving into the paint and forcing the action far more. Catchings, inevitably, was the initial spark, but the speedy backcourt of Phillips and January was right there with her. Dunn still took two timeouts inside the first six minutes of the game, concerned about her team’s rebounding, and Atlanta were hanging right with Indiana on the scoreboard, but this was how the Fever had needed to start the game. The Dream were hitting jumpers to keep even, but that wasn’t likely to last.

The game remained surprisingly close in the second quarter – surprising because it felt like the Fever were in charge. They were penetrating and creating contact, forcing their way to the free-throw line. They had January curling around ball-screens and knocking down jumpers or slicing to the basket. They had both Sutton-Brown and Zellous providing nice energy off the bench, rather than pouting about being relegated from the starting lineup. In fact, the only things that weren’t working out were their stars and typical scoring leaders. Neither Catchings nor Katie Douglas could get a shot to drop, and by halftime they were a combined 2-14 for 8 points. Douglas hit the opening basket of the game on a Catchings kick-out; Catchings hit the final shot of the half with a pull-up three over Sancho Lyttle. That was all they had. Good thing their teammates were 14-16 for 39 at the half. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 09/30/2012: Sweeping into the Conference Finals

After holding serve in the opening games, two higher seeds had the chance to close out last night and maximise their rest before the Conference Finals. But with the 1-1-1 format the WNBA now uses, both would be trying to finish things on the road. The lower seeds were just trying to keep their seasons alive.

The action started in San Antonio, although thanks to a Red Hot Chilli Peppers concert at the AT&T Center, the Silver Stars and Sparks were playing next door at the Freeman Coliseum. Game 1 was tight and could’ve gone either way in the final minutes, so San Antonio would’ve been confident that they could extend the series against a team they beat three times in the regular season.

Both teams stuck with the same starting lineups, although Becky Hammon began the game defending DeLisha Milton-Jones rather than Alana Beard. Despite Milton-Jones having an even bigger size advantage, that had proven a much safer matchup for San Antonio in Game 1. It worked out fine, and Milton-Jones had a fairly quiet afternoon.

However, San Antonio still struggled to stop Los Angeles from scoring throughout the first half. LA were pushing the ball down the floor, looking for quick offense, and Candace Parker wasted no time in attacking Jayne Appel in the low post. They kept driving right around the edges of the San Antonio defense, and the help wasn’t there quickly enough to cut anything off. LA were already up 17-8 midway through the opening quarter, when Silver Stars coach Dan Hughes made his standard move to bring Danielle Adams and Jia Perkins off the bench.

While Adams and Perkins offered extra offensive options for San Antonio, they didn’t make much difference to the direction of the game. LA were still knocking down shots with ease, and finding too much space against the Silver Stars defense. San Antonio tried switching to zone, but LA were playing smartly enough to find the holes, or they had Kristi Toliver to just shoot over it. They even played heavy minutes with bench players Jenna O’Hea, Jantel Lavender and Marissa Coleman on the floor, and two regular starters were enough to help carry that group along. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 09/29/2012: Harding leads Dream to a steal; Lynx hold on by their claws

You often hear athletes saying that it’s a whole new season heading into the playoffs. Or that everyone starts over at 0-0. While true, there’s still the basic problem that the best predictor of the future is often the past. Sometimes you don’t have to look very far to find a reason to say “we really should’ve seen this coming”.

The Atlanta Dream went into Indiana last night for Game 1 of their playoff series with history on their side. The Fever had the better regular season in 2012, but Atlanta have reached the WNBA Finals in both the last two years from low seeds and without home-court advantage. They’d shown the ability to step up when the games really matter, including when they beat Indiana in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals.

On the bright side for Indiana, their starting backcourt of Briann January and Shavonte Zellous were both passed fit to play, after missing the final games of the season due to concussion symptoms. They took their places in the regular Fever starting lineup, while Atlanta also had their standard group. This is the playoffs – any minor injuries players are carrying are pushed to the wayside due to the importance of the games.

It was all Atlanta for the vast majority of the first half. Indiana had too many unnecessary turnovers, either with dumb passes in transition or entry passes that Sancho Lyttle quickly stepped in front of to poke away. The Fever needed to be more aware of Lyttle, who’s been pulling that move for years. You can’t make the same passes when she’s the defender involved that you might force against other players. She already had 4 steals after barely 11 minutes of play.

While the turnovers would typically ignite Atlanta’s running game and take over the contest via fastbreaks, the Dream weren’t just dominating in transition. They were the more effective team in half court sets during the first half, repeatedly finding Erika de Souza under the hoop in the early minutes, and then finishing plays more consistently as the game progressed. Point guard Lindsey Harding was aggressive offensively and hitting her shots, Angel McCoughtry joined in after taking a little while to heat up, and Atlanta were in control. Continue reading →

WNBA Today, 09/28/2012: Playoffs tip-off with a snoozer and a shootout

After a long wait, finally the real games are underway. Last night saw the start of the 2012 WNBA playoffs, and after all the hoopla and horrified reactions to the draft lottery the night before, it was nice to get back to basketball. Let the games begin.

The postseason opened in Connecticut, where the 25-9 Sun hosted a New York Liberty team that backed into the playoffs despite a 15-19 regular season record. While ‘full strength’ might have been an exaggeration, both teams had all 11 players on their rosters available. Asjha Jones was in her familiar spot as Connecticut’s starting power forward, despite still shaking off the rust from missing a month due to her achilles injury. New York had Essence Carson in the backcourt alongside Cappie Pondexter, having only been cleared to play that morning after the leg injury picked up late in Saturday’s final regular season game.

The opening quarter was a sign of things to come for the rest of the evening. Both teams were living almost exclusively off jump shots. There was very little penetration into the paint, and few attempts to post up. New York were missing constantly, with Pondexter and Nicole Powell the primary culprits, but everyone joining in on occasion. Their only real success was coming on the offensive glass, where at least an occasional putback created a few points. Connecticut, however, were moving the ball a little better, and finding players in better position to score. It wasn’t all about creating their own shots, and the shooters had more space and rhythm to knock down their shots. The Sun have faced this Liberty team often enough to know where the holes are in the ‘white line’ defense, and kick outs or reverse passes were finding open teammates. Plus they were simply shooting better as a team, as they’ve done all year. The Sun led 23-13 by the end of the first quarter, and they’d really done nothing special to get there.

After the Connecticut lead reached 14 early in the second quarter, New York head coach John Whisenant called a timeout. Out of that break, finally, the Liberty fed the post, and Kia Vaughn had an easy layup. The next time down, Plenette Pierson drove for another straightforward finish at the rim. Apparently, Whisenant had reminded his team that you’re allowed to score from inside 15 feet. They also received a nice little boost from backup wing Alex Montgomery, with a steal and a three, which matched the energy Connecticut had gained from Tan White late in the first quarter. But the Liberty were quickly back to gunning away from the perimeter, and swiftly returned to being outshot by the Sun. That Connecticut led only 41-34 at halftime was down to Powell finally draining a pair of threes, and Pondexter actually drawing a couple of fouls late in the half.

The Liberty ask a hell of a lot from Pondexter, and sometimes it’s too much. She’s often the one standing around dribbling while whatever set the Liberty are supposed to be running plays out in front of her. Then she either gives the ball up and watches one of her less talented teammates miss, or is left with limited time to make something happen before the shot clock expires. But she also created many of her own problems in this game. With Allison Hightower, Danielle McCray or Tan White chasing her around the floor, Pondexter constantly settled for pull-up jump shots, usually while under tight pressure. In fact, she didn’t have an official shot attempt actually at the rim all night long (there were one or two where she drove and drew fouls, meaning the miss didn’t make the stat-sheet). That’s a credit to Connecticut’s defense, but Cappie’s one of the best offensive talents in the women’s game. She’s supposed to be able to create practically any shot she wants, whenever she wants it. An endless stream of bricks from outside isn’t going to cut it. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Los Angeles Sparks vs. San Antonio Silver Stars

Los Angeles Sparks (#2 seed, 24-10) vs. San Antonio Silver Stars (#3 seed, 21-13)

 

Regular season series: San Antonio won 3-1

06/16 @S.A.: Silver Stars 98-85

06/24 @L.A.: Silver Stars 91-71

06/28 @S.A.: Silver Stars 94-80

08/23 @L.A.: Sparks 101-77

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For much of the season, the 2/3 matchup in the West looked like the most mouth-watering potential series. We had three teams all playing impressive basketball, with Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Antonio all winning consistently. Then it all rather drifted away in the final month of the season. Minnesota pulled away at the top, while LA had a horrendous road trip and San Antonio appeared to have forgotten how they built their 12-game winning streak earlier in the year. LA seemed to pull themselves together more convincingly before the end of the year, while San Antonio continued to struggle in all but a couple of games. The difficult question heading into this playoff series is which versions of these teams are actually going to show up.

When they’re rolling, both these squads can be scary offensively. LA have the speed, athleticism and natural ability of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike in the paint, a tandem that every other team in the league has trouble dealing with when they’re both fully invested. Parker had a series of quiet appearances after the Olympics, and appeared to be playing through a knee injury, but looked like she was emerging from that slump over the final couple of weeks. Ogwumike is a relentless rebounder, she’ll run the floor hard and she’ll fight for everything. On the perimeter, led by Kristi Toliver, they’ve got players who can shoot the lights out when they’re firing. Alana Beard’s offensive game has been improving all season as well, with her accuracy from outside returning, and DeLisha Milton-Jones can still score if you forget about her.

San Antonio have a different kind of attack. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

Minnesota Lynx (#1 seed, 27-7) vs. Seattle Storm (#4 seed, 16-18)

 

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

05/27 @Min: Lynx 84-71

06/06 @Min: Lynx 79-55

06/17 @Sea: Storm 65-62

08/21 @Sea: Lynx 86-73

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It’s been a long season for Storm fans. From very early on, thanks to the state Phoenix and Tulsa were in, a playoff spot was virtually guaranteed. But they’ve still suffered through a lot of messy basketball, multiple injuries (several of which are still lingering) and a lot of losses. In many ways, the Lynx have been even better than in their dominating 2011 Championship season. Their scoring average is up, with a higher team shooting percentage, while their opponents’ scoring has dropped several points. Maya Moore has developed into a more well-rounded player, while the other youngsters on the roster also have more experience under their belts. They’ve had one or two awkward periods this season, and yet still only lost 7 games all year. As with the Connecticut-New York series, examining this matchup from all angles ends up being an exercise in searching for ways to find hope for Seattle.

On the positive side for the Storm, their whole roster is at least healthy enough to play now. Sue Bird has been fighting through a hip issue, Lauren Jackson had a hamstring problem, Tanisha Wright’s knee has limited her, and most recently Svetlana Abrosimova sprained her wrist (she’s the only one that might still miss out in this series, although she’s expected to play). Having the band back together at least gives Seattle a puncher’s chance against Minnesota. Bird and Jackson have been a dangerous tandem for over a decade now, and they can still cause plenty of problems. Bird runs the show, and has a penchant for knocking down big shots when she has to. Jackson still has an offensive arsenal inside and out that can dominate. But they’ve had so little time to gain any rhythm and rebuild the chemistry since Jackson returned to the team after the Olympics. They’re deeper than they used to be, but the starters aren’t quite as effective any more, especially when injuries are still limiting what they can do. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream

Indiana Fever (#2 seed, 22-12) vs. Atlanta Dream (#3 seed, 19-15)

 

Regular season series: Indiana won, 3-2

05/19 @Ind: Fever 92-84

05/27 @Atl: Fever 78-62

06/26 @Atl: Dream 70-58

08/18 @Ind: Fever 86-72

09/05 @Atl: Dream 71-64

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Where the other Eastern matchup might be the easiest pick in the first round, this is probably the toughest. Despite making the big, dangerous decision to move star player Tamika Catchings from small forward to power forward for this season, the Fever have had a strong year. There’ve been a few hiccups along the way, and they play a rather different style from what we’ve grown used to over the years, but they’ve continued to win games. In fact, most of the advanced numbers (points per possession both offensively and defensively, pythagorean expected wins/losses etc.) make Indiana – not Connecticut – the top team in the East this season. But after all the confusion and controversy in Atlanta around the exit of Marynell Meadors and the absence/suspension of Angel McCoughtry, the Dream have settled into a threatening looking unit. They look like a team again, have played well over the last month, and they’ve reached the WNBA Finals from a low seed in each of the last two seasons. Can you bet against them doing it again?

In the past, this matchup would’ve been all about pace – and frankly that’s still a central element. What’s changed is that Indiana aren’t quite as pedestrian and plodding any more. They’ll run if you give them the chance, using their own defense to create transition chances, and they’ve grown very fond of the three-point shot. In fact, while both of these teams play tough, aggressive defense – Atlanta were 1st, Indiana 3rd in the WNBA this season in defensive points per possession – the style of scoring is where we’ll see the greatest contrast. While Indiana do get some penetration from Catchings, Katie Douglas and their guards, and some occasional post offense from backups like Jessica Davenport, a lot of their offense comes on perimeter shots. They generate them via drive-and-kicks or solid ball rotation, and fire away. Continue reading →

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty

Connecticut Sun (#1 seed, 25-9) vs. New York Liberty (#4 seed, 15-19)

 

Regular season series: Connecticut 4-1

05/19 @NY: Sun 78-73

05/20 @Conn: Sun 92-77

06/15 @Conn: Sun 97-55

08/16 @NY: Liberty 79-66

08/18 @Conn: Sun 85-74

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On paper, this is the most one-sided matchup in the first round. Even more than Minnesota-Seattle in the West. Connecticut have been atop the Eastern Conference virtually all season long, and despite some injury issues still managed to win 8 of their final 11 games. Based on most of the advanced metrics, New York shouldn’t even be in the playoffs – they were behind the Chicago Sky in practically everything besides wins. So in looking at this series, you almost inevitably find yourself searching for places to offer hope for New York. Because on the face of it, this should be a blow out.

One potential positive for the Liberty is that Connecticut have some injury issues where you’d expect to find their advantage – in the post. Asjha Jones has only played twice since the Olympics due to an achilles injury, and while she looked pretty good in those two brief appearances, she may not be ready to produce at her previous levels. Tina Charles only took one game off to rest multiple niggling injuries, and has otherwise continued to play through any discomfort. The Liberty post corps of Plenette Pierson, Kara Braxton, Kia Vaughn and DeMya Walker is going to have to fight hard and make it a physical contest with Jones and Charles, because based on consistent level of performance this season they’re outmatched. Charles is a legitimate MVP contender, a skilled finisher inside with range out to 18-feet, and she constantly piles up rebounds. Jones has built up a nice chemistry with Charles over the last few years, and they work well together. Jones gives them an extra scoring threat who can stretch the defense, and as long as she’s fully recovered a more mobile defender than backup Mistie Mims. Continue reading →