2012 WNBA Finals Mega-Preview: Lynx vs. Fever, Part 2 – The Post

Interestingly enough, we’ve arrived at a Finals without a major low post scoring threat for either team. Minnesota have Rebekkah Brunson and Taj McWilliams-Franklin, who can both finish inside or knock down shots from mid-range, but aren’t exactly players you toss the ball to down low and watch go to work. Indiana have Tamika Catchings, who’s still more of a perimeter player offensively, and now Erlana Larkins likely to start at center. Larkins only became a starter in Game 2 of the Atlanta series, with Fever head coach Lin Dunn searching for someone who could give her team energy inside and rebounding effort. Larkins does exactly that, despite being undersized, and her efforts against the bigger names of Atlanta and Connecticut have played a big role in taking Indiana this far. The Fever started to use her as an offensive option a little more down low in the Connecticut series, making Tina Charles work at both ends of the floor, but Larkins still isn’t high on their list of offensive options. These posts are out there for a lot more than their interior scoring.

Brunson and McWilliams-Franklin are the base of the Minnesota defense. They’re the interior core that makes it hard for the opposition to score against the Lynx inside, both mobile and smart enough to be in the right places against their assigned matchups and to help against penetration. McWilliams-Franklin is the wily veteran who does nothing faster than it needs to be done. You notice her most when she’s off the floor, and gaps that weren’t there before seem to appear far more readily in the Lynx defense. Brunson is the athlete, a voracious rebounder who rises up for boards or chases down balls that seemed like a lost cause. She can also get out in transition alongside the guards, and has a mid-range jumper that she regularly knocks down. Augustus and Moore draw so much attention that it’s often Brunson left in space, and she’s more than willing to make teams pay. Continue reading

2012 WNBA Finals Mega-Preview: Lynx vs. Fever, Part 1 – The Perimeter

Where better to start our multi-part preview of the 2012 WNBA Finals clash between the Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever than with the most apparent mismatch? The Lynx start three Olympians on their perimeter – two wings who finished in the top-five in MVP voting this season, and either the best or second-best point guard in the world, depending on who you ask. Indiana have a point guard who struggled through much of the Eastern Conference Finals, a recently promoted Aussie combo-guard who didn’t even make her country’s Olympic team (ludicrous as that was), and a serious injury doubt over their best perimeter scorer. On paper, this is where Indiana lose this series.

Much of what Minnesota do revolves around their outstanding trio of perimeter starters. Lindsay Whalen runs the team with a steady hand, willing to quietly facilitate while the talent around her piles up points, but always capable of using her strength and physicality to bully her way to the rim. Even her shooting from outside has become a lot more accurate in recent years as she’s become more choosy about which shots to take. Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore are the top scorers and leading lights for the Lynx. Both can shoot with outstanding accuracy from outside, both can finish or pass on the break, and both scare the bejesus out of opposition teams when they show signs of getting hot.

Moore has the slightly more rounded package in that she’ll typically grab more rebounds and is more likely to pick up assists, but Augustus is a slightly more natural scorer and has developed into a solid perimeter defender, which makes her valuable at both ends of the floor. The Lynx will switch when necessary defensively, but it’s Augustus who’ll start on whichever perimeter player the Lynx are most worried about. Against Seattle it was Sue Bird, against LA it was Kristi Toliver – with Indiana, she might take Katie Douglas (if Douglas plays), but Brian January is also a possibility. Augustus is quick enough to stay in front of January but Augustus’s size and length could cut out passing lanes and make it more difficult for January to drive into the paint. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Finals: Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever

Connecticut Sun (#1 seed, 25-9) vs. Indiana Fever (#2 seed, 22-12)

 

Regular season series: Sun won 3-1

06/08 @Ind: Sun 89-81

06/19 @Conn: Sun 88-85

06/21 @Ind: Fever 95-61

09/19 @Conn: Sun 73-67

—–

While Atlanta always threatened a late run, these teams have been the top two in the Eastern Conference all season long. So it’s only fitting that they should be fighting it out for a place in the WNBA Finals. As with the West, the two contenders had contrasting paths through the first round. Connecticut finished off New York in two straight games and were done by Saturday night. Indiana dropped the opening game at home, shook up their starting lineup, and fought their way back to win a deciding game on Tuesday night. Now they travel to Connecticut for Game 1 of this series, where the Sun have been lying back and waiting for their opponents to show up all week.

Despite Connecticut finishing higher in the standings, most of the statistical categories gave Indiana the edge over the course of the regular season. Not by much, but the Fever were ahead in both offensive and defensive efficiency, among others, across the year. But these aren’t going to be quite the same teams that we saw in the regular season. Connecticut spent the second half of the year muddling through with fill-in options in the post alongside Tina Charles, while she also battled injuries. Now regular starter Asjha Jones is back from her achilles problem, and looked impressive in the series against the Liberty. Charles still has those injuries, and she’s had a few shaky rebounding games which the pain has likely contributed to, but most of the time she’s her typical MVP-level self both in the paint and with her mid-range jumper. Dealing with those two is going to be the highest priority for Indiana.

However, the Fever aren’t the same either. Indiana head coach Lin Dunn will likely start out the series with the lineup which served her so well against Atlanta, which isn’t quite the same as the group she relied on through the regular season. Erin Phillips came in at shooting guard for Shavonte Zellous, which added a little extra ballhandling to the mix (plus Phillips used to play for the Sun and took a while extricating herself from the franchise, so she might be particularly energised for this opponent). But the key change came at center, where Erlana Larkins replaced Tammy Sutton-Brown. That move gave Indiana energy and activity in the paint, along with a natural rebounder who makes up for her lack of height with effort and positioning. If Larkins plays the same heavy minutes again in this series, Connecticut will undoubtedly try to attack her and utilise their size advantage in the paint. But Erika de Souza and Sancho Lyttle had several inches on her as well, and couldn’t accomplish anything much once the Fever started using Larkins heavily inside. This could be where the series turns – Indiana need Larkins’s activity and rebounding on the floor, but if Connecticut can exploit her it could force Dunn to go bigger. Sutton-Brown or even Jessica Davenport may have to take up minutes at center to offer true size. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Finals: Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Minnesota Lynx (#1 seed, 27-7) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (#2 seed, 24-10)

 

Regular season series: Tied 2-2

05/24 @Min: Lynx 92-84

07/05 @L.A.: Sparks 96-90

09/04 @Min: Lynx 88-77

09/20 @L.A.: Sparks 92-76

—–

It seems like we’ve been heading for this clash in the 2012 Western Conference Finals for a while. From the start of the season, Los Angeles looked reenergised by a healthy Candace Parker, their new rookie stud, and a new head coach. Minnesota looked just as good as last year, when they swept their way to a WNBA championship. When San Antonio fell off a little after the Olympic break this matchup became even more likely, but their paths through the first-round differed significantly. While some lapses in concentration meant they had to fight it out in the closing minutes of each game, the Sparks finished off the Silver Stars 2-0 and were finished by Saturday afternoon. The Lynx, on the other hand, had a battle royale with Seattle and needed a last-second Storm miss on Tuesday night to secure their spot in this series. Minnesota were the favourites heading into the playoffs, and they still are in the eyes of the bookmakers. But a little extra doubt has been cast on proceedings since the crunch games began.

However, this will be a very different task from the first-round for both teams. Minnesota faced a Storm squad built on its defense, which kept them out of the paint and broke their rhythm offensively. While first-year Sparks head coach Carol Ross arrived from Atlanta with a reputation for defense, this LA team doesn’t have the defensive solidity of the Storm. They’ve often struggled to rotate and recover to fill gaps created by pick-and-rolls or basic off-ball movement. The problem for the Lynx is that those aspects of their offense seemed to disappear against Seattle. They were endlessly settling for perimeter jumpers, rather than trying to penetrate the defense. Sometimes that works out fine, because players like Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore are some of the best shooters in the game, but even for them a 15-foot jumper is a lower percentage shot than a layup. Minnesota need to appreciate quickly that they’re facing a less competent, less cohesive defense, and get back to picking it apart with their usual smooth passing and off-ball movement. They need quicker, easier offense than we saw throughout the Storm series.

LA were dealing with San Antonio’s quick, small perimeter guards and limited inside presence in the first round. Now they’re up against a team that plays far more solid interior defense, and has a hell of a lot more size and physicality to throw at them on the perimeter. The LA backcourt of Kristi Toliver and Alana Beard was facing diminutive players like Danielle Robinson, Becky Hammon and Jia Perkins, and Toliver/Beard shot 32-54 (59%) combined across the series. Now they’ll be trying to score over or around Lindsay Whalen, Augustus and Moore, which should make things rather more difficult. While the Lynx switch freely on the perimeter, we’ll have to wait and see how they target and attack LA on the defensive end. Augustus was tasked with tailing Sue Bird in the first round, and may well get first crack at slowing down Toliver in this series. Her size and length could trouble the Sparks gunner, and unlike San Antonio it doesn’t create an awkward mismatch elsewhere on the floor. Whalen can handle Beard if she has to. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Los Angeles Sparks vs. San Antonio Silver Stars

Los Angeles Sparks (#2 seed, 24-10) vs. San Antonio Silver Stars (#3 seed, 21-13)

 

Regular season series: San Antonio won 3-1

06/16 @S.A.: Silver Stars 98-85

06/24 @L.A.: Silver Stars 91-71

06/28 @S.A.: Silver Stars 94-80

08/23 @L.A.: Sparks 101-77

—–

For much of the season, the 2/3 matchup in the West looked like the most mouth-watering potential series. We had three teams all playing impressive basketball, with Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Antonio all winning consistently. Then it all rather drifted away in the final month of the season. Minnesota pulled away at the top, while LA had a horrendous road trip and San Antonio appeared to have forgotten how they built their 12-game winning streak earlier in the year. LA seemed to pull themselves together more convincingly before the end of the year, while San Antonio continued to struggle in all but a couple of games. The difficult question heading into this playoff series is which versions of these teams are actually going to show up.

When they’re rolling, both these squads can be scary offensively. LA have the speed, athleticism and natural ability of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike in the paint, a tandem that every other team in the league has trouble dealing with when they’re both fully invested. Parker had a series of quiet appearances after the Olympics, and appeared to be playing through a knee injury, but looked like she was emerging from that slump over the final couple of weeks. Ogwumike is a relentless rebounder, she’ll run the floor hard and she’ll fight for everything. On the perimeter, led by Kristi Toliver, they’ve got players who can shoot the lights out when they’re firing. Alana Beard’s offensive game has been improving all season as well, with her accuracy from outside returning, and DeLisha Milton-Jones can still score if you forget about her.

San Antonio have a different kind of attack. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Western Conference Semi-Finals: Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm

Minnesota Lynx (#1 seed, 27-7) vs. Seattle Storm (#4 seed, 16-18)

 

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

05/27 @Min: Lynx 84-71

06/06 @Min: Lynx 79-55

06/17 @Sea: Storm 65-62

08/21 @Sea: Lynx 86-73

—–

It’s been a long season for Storm fans. From very early on, thanks to the state Phoenix and Tulsa were in, a playoff spot was virtually guaranteed. But they’ve still suffered through a lot of messy basketball, multiple injuries (several of which are still lingering) and a lot of losses. In many ways, the Lynx have been even better than in their dominating 2011 Championship season. Their scoring average is up, with a higher team shooting percentage, while their opponents’ scoring has dropped several points. Maya Moore has developed into a more well-rounded player, while the other youngsters on the roster also have more experience under their belts. They’ve had one or two awkward periods this season, and yet still only lost 7 games all year. As with the Connecticut-New York series, examining this matchup from all angles ends up being an exercise in searching for ways to find hope for Seattle.

On the positive side for the Storm, their whole roster is at least healthy enough to play now. Sue Bird has been fighting through a hip issue, Lauren Jackson had a hamstring problem, Tanisha Wright’s knee has limited her, and most recently Svetlana Abrosimova sprained her wrist (she’s the only one that might still miss out in this series, although she’s expected to play). Having the band back together at least gives Seattle a puncher’s chance against Minnesota. Bird and Jackson have been a dangerous tandem for over a decade now, and they can still cause plenty of problems. Bird runs the show, and has a penchant for knocking down big shots when she has to. Jackson still has an offensive arsenal inside and out that can dominate. But they’ve had so little time to gain any rhythm and rebuild the chemistry since Jackson returned to the team after the Olympics. They’re deeper than they used to be, but the starters aren’t quite as effective any more, especially when injuries are still limiting what they can do. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream

Indiana Fever (#2 seed, 22-12) vs. Atlanta Dream (#3 seed, 19-15)

 

Regular season series: Indiana won, 3-2

05/19 @Ind: Fever 92-84

05/27 @Atl: Fever 78-62

06/26 @Atl: Dream 70-58

08/18 @Ind: Fever 86-72

09/05 @Atl: Dream 71-64

—–

Where the other Eastern matchup might be the easiest pick in the first round, this is probably the toughest. Despite making the big, dangerous decision to move star player Tamika Catchings from small forward to power forward for this season, the Fever have had a strong year. There’ve been a few hiccups along the way, and they play a rather different style from what we’ve grown used to over the years, but they’ve continued to win games. In fact, most of the advanced numbers (points per possession both offensively and defensively, pythagorean expected wins/losses etc.) make Indiana – not Connecticut – the top team in the East this season. But after all the confusion and controversy in Atlanta around the exit of Marynell Meadors and the absence/suspension of Angel McCoughtry, the Dream have settled into a threatening looking unit. They look like a team again, have played well over the last month, and they’ve reached the WNBA Finals from a low seed in each of the last two seasons. Can you bet against them doing it again?

In the past, this matchup would’ve been all about pace – and frankly that’s still a central element. What’s changed is that Indiana aren’t quite as pedestrian and plodding any more. They’ll run if you give them the chance, using their own defense to create transition chances, and they’ve grown very fond of the three-point shot. In fact, while both of these teams play tough, aggressive defense – Atlanta were 1st, Indiana 3rd in the WNBA this season in defensive points per possession – the style of scoring is where we’ll see the greatest contrast. While Indiana do get some penetration from Catchings, Katie Douglas and their guards, and some occasional post offense from backups like Jessica Davenport, a lot of their offense comes on perimeter shots. They generate them via drive-and-kicks or solid ball rotation, and fire away. Continue reading

WNBA 2012 Playoff Previews – Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty

Connecticut Sun (#1 seed, 25-9) vs. New York Liberty (#4 seed, 15-19)

 

Regular season series: Connecticut 4-1

05/19 @NY: Sun 78-73

05/20 @Conn: Sun 92-77

06/15 @Conn: Sun 97-55

08/16 @NY: Liberty 79-66

08/18 @Conn: Sun 85-74

—–

On paper, this is the most one-sided matchup in the first round. Even more than Minnesota-Seattle in the West. Connecticut have been atop the Eastern Conference virtually all season long, and despite some injury issues still managed to win 8 of their final 11 games. Based on most of the advanced metrics, New York shouldn’t even be in the playoffs – they were behind the Chicago Sky in practically everything besides wins. So in looking at this series, you almost inevitably find yourself searching for places to offer hope for New York. Because on the face of it, this should be a blow out.

One potential positive for the Liberty is that Connecticut have some injury issues where you’d expect to find their advantage – in the post. Asjha Jones has only played twice since the Olympics due to an achilles injury, and while she looked pretty good in those two brief appearances, she may not be ready to produce at her previous levels. Tina Charles only took one game off to rest multiple niggling injuries, and has otherwise continued to play through any discomfort. The Liberty post corps of Plenette Pierson, Kara Braxton, Kia Vaughn and DeMya Walker is going to have to fight hard and make it a physical contest with Jones and Charles, because based on consistent level of performance this season they’re outmatched. Charles is a legitimate MVP contender, a skilled finisher inside with range out to 18-feet, and she constantly piles up rebounds. Jones has built up a nice chemistry with Charles over the last few years, and they work well together. Jones gives them an extra scoring threat who can stretch the defense, and as long as she’s fully recovered a more mobile defender than backup Mistie Mims. Continue reading

2012 In-Depth WNBA Season Preview: Tulsa Shock

PG: Temeka Johnson/Ivory Latta

SG: Riquna Williams/Jene Morris

SF: Scholanda Dorrell/Karima Christmas

PF: Kayla Pedersen/Glory Johnson/Jennifer Lacy

C: Chante Black/Lynetta Kizer/(Elizabeth Cambage)

Significant additions: Gary Kloppenburg (new head coach, former Indiana assistant), Johnson (trade with Phoenix), Robinson (free agency from San Antonio), Johnson (college draft), Williams (college draft), Morris (free agency after being out of the league), Black (missed last season through injury), Kizer (college draft).

Significant losses: Tiffany Jackson (pregnant, will miss entire season), Elizabeth Cambage (training with Australian National Team and will miss first half of season), Sheryl Swoopes (free agent, unsigned), Amber Holt (cut), Andrea Riley (trade with Phoenix)

—–

At least now we can give the Shock fans some hope. There’s some light at the end of the tunnel. A hint of spring peeking its head up from the end of a long, cold winter. Because Nolan Richardson is no longer in charge, and the Shock hierarchy finally went out and found someone with a history in the WNBA who just might know what he’s doing. A long-time WNBA assistant coach, most recently for several years in Indiana, Gary Kloppenburg takes the reins and can begin the long road back to contention for this franchise. No one’s saying this team are going to be good, not yet. In fact, player for player this roster might even be worse than last year. But you have to start somewhere, and you have to start heading in the right direction. The Shock look like they might finally be doing that. Continue reading

2012 In-Depth WNBA Season Preview: Seattle Storm

PG: Sue Bird

SG: Tanisha Wright/Katie Smith

SF: Camille Little/Shekinna Stricklen/Alysha Clark

PF: Tina Thompson/Victoria Dunlap

C: Ann Wauters/Ewelina Kobryn/(Lauren Jackson)

Significant additions: Wauters (free agency after being out of the league through choice), Thompson (free agency from Los Angeles), Stricklen (college draft), Dunlap (trade with Washington), Clark (free agency after being out of the league)

Significant losses: Lauren Jackson (missing first half of season to train with Australian National Team), Swin Cash and Le’coe Willingham (trade with Chicago), Ashley Robinson (trade with Washington)

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Being consistently good can be a problem in US sports leagues. The lack of high draft picks that results means that teams can get old before your eyes, without the young talent being added to replace them. Storm head coach/general manager Brian Agler decided that he needed to do something about that this offseason and made a big move, giving up important veterans Swin Cash and Le’coe Willingham to acquire the second overall pick in the draft. The trade was partly made in the hope that one of the highly-touted college juniors (Brittney Griner, Elena Delle Donne, Skylar Diggins) would declare for the draft, which ultimately never occurred, leaving it looking a far more risky move. Still, the move also created the cap room for him to re-stock with other veterans, and even without star post Lauren Jackson for the first half of the season the Storm should be very competitive once again. Continue reading