In case you hadn’t noticed, I’m 6-0 predicting the series winners in the playoffs so far. Largely speaking, that’s come simply from taking the clear favourite – the team most people would’ve backed. The two instances where that may not have been the case were both with Indiana. Many felt they’d fall to Atlanta in the first round considering the Dream’s playoff success in the last couple of years, and with home-court advantage Connecticut were certainly considered favourites in the Eastern Finals. But for whatever reason, my gut had faith in the Fever, and they came through. So if anyone’s going to take Indiana in the Finals, it would have to be me, right?

From the opening weeks of the season, I’ve spent much of the year admitting I was wrong about the Fever in the preseason. I still thought they’d be good, but I hated the idea of moving Catchings to power forward. Now, I feel like it’s everyone else who’s underestimating Indiana. There seems to be a general view that they’re the lambs to Minnesota’s slaughter, a team that made the Finals thanks to Atlanta’s dysfunction and a freak shooting performance against Connecticut. The injury to Katie Douglas has just cemented opinion that the Lynx are nailed on to repeat. But that’s not giving Indiana enough credit. Continue reading →

All the other elements that add up to make this an intriguing Finals series:

Pace

Statistically, Indiana were still a pretty pedestrian team this season. Not quite on the level of Seattle or Washington, but getting there. However, they don’t feel like the plodding Fever team of old any more. Moving Catchings to power forward has made them more dynamic at both ends of the floor, adding an extra shooter who can handle the ball to their offense. Their defense is so active that it feels like they’re forcing the pace of the game even when they don’t have the ball, and it’ll be crucial for them to create some easy points off turnovers in this series.

But Minnesota typically play at a faster pace, leaking out for transition chances and taking shots earlier in halfcourt sets. While Indiana were comfortable running with Atlanta and Connecticut in previous rounds, if games in the Finals turn into end-to-end shootouts it’ll likely favour the Lynx. Minnesota’s real problems in the postseason came against Seattle, when the Storm forced them into low-scoring, halfcourt games without much penetration. Indiana have been one of the better teams this year at preventing fastbreak points from being scored against them – only narrowly behind Seattle in that category, in fact – while Minnesota led the league in fastbreak scoring. Indiana need to take care of the ball and work back hard in transition when necessary, both of which they’ve been solid at all year long.

Turnovers

As the above paragraphs suggested, this is all part of the same issue. Avoid giving the ball away, you keep the opposition’s transition chances to a minimum. That forces them into halfcourt sets, where it’s always more difficult to score, however talented you may be. Both these teams have done well in terms of avoiding turnovers over the course of the season, although Minnesota have had outings where they’ve been painfully sloppy with the ball. Continue reading →

As with the Conference Finals, it’s hard to know quite what we’re going to get from the reserves on either of these teams. Firstly with Indiana, we don’t know exactly who they’ll have coming off their bench. If Douglas is out, either Shavonte Zellous or Jeanette Pohlen will likely slide into the starting lineup, and try to fill the hole. Either way, the depth of their bench would naturally be shortened. For the Lynx, the questions come from not knowing who might show up ready to produce, or who Cheryl Reeve will trust to play.

The Fever were one of the deeper teams in the WNBA in the regular season, especially early in the year. It seemed like Lin Dunn had a variety of options, each a little different, and could roll with whichever ones worked on any given night. That’s changed a little as the season’s gone on, and especially into the playoffs. Dunn’s shortened her rotation significantly, and sliding Erlana Larkins into the starting lineup has removed her energy and hustle as an extra boost from the sidelines. In the post Dunn now has Jessica Davenport, Tammy Sutton-Brown and Sasha Goodlett, but has typically only been using one of them in recent games. First it was Sutton-Brown, but it’ll likely be Davenport to begin with in the Finals after she showed a little form in the last couple of games against Connecticut. She’s a poor rebounder for someone her size, and her lack of mobility changes how Indiana play defense, but she can sometimes produce a run of positive offensive plays that give the Fever an added dimension. Sutton-Brown’s the veteran, the regular starter until Larkins took her place, and she’d be coming in as a calming influence or to provide some defense. We probably won’t see her on the floor unless Davenport’s a bust. We probably won’t see Goodlett unless someone’s winning by 20 in the fourth quarter. Continue reading →