Monthly Archives: September 2013

2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Western Conference First Round – Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Los Angeles (24-10) vs Phoenix (19-15)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 102.73 (2nd in WNBA) – 99.6 (4th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 93.99 (2nd) – 100.4 (10th)

Rebound percentage: .494 (7th) – .486 (10th)

 

Season series between the teams: Tied 2-2

06/14 @Pho, Mercury won 97-81

07/14 @Pho, Sparks won 88-76

07/18 @LA, Mercury won 90-84

09/15 @LA, Sparks won 89-55

 

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Since back in the preseason, the 2-3 matchup in the Western Conference’s first-round looked appetising. With three teams expected to be real powers in the West, whichever two were forced to play each other were going to have a real fight on their hands. Then the Phoenix Mercury went and changed the script, in a variety of ways. Initially it was by failing to live up to expectations, producing a mediocre team despite the return of several important players and the addition of Brittney Griner. Then a midseason coaching change led to a new outlook and a new philosophy, and ultimately kept them in that same top-three they were always supposed to be a part of. Meanwhile, all the Los Angeles Sparks have done is produce their second consecutive 24-10 season, while exhibiting a variety of strengths and frailties along the way. Eventually, we’ve been left with a first-round playoff series that looks just as intriguing as it did back at the start of the year.

 

Phoenix are a strange team to figure out. Since Russ Pennell took over, they’ve gone 9-4 and exhibited a much greater willingness to actually put some effort and concentration into playing defense. They’ve still had breakdowns at times, and that record doesn’t show the cupcake schedule they’ve faced since Pennell arrived, but there’ve definitely been noticeable improvements. Although at times under Pennell they’ve struggled on the offensive end. He’s left much of the offense alone, with a tweak here or there, but they’ve had games where turnovers have piled up and the players looked like they barely knew each other. Now they’re in the postseason, they don’t have any more games against weak opposition, and they’re unlikely to get away with performances like that.

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2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Eastern Conference First Round – Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics

 

By the numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Atlanta (17-17) vs Washington (17-17)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 95.19 (9th in WNBA) – 95.96 (6th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 93.2 (1st) – 95.6 (6th)

Rebound percentage: .503 (4th) – .502 (6th)

 

Season series between the teams: Atlanta won 3-2

06/02 @Wash, Dream won 73-63

06/28 @Atl, Dream won 86-75

08/18 @Atl, Dream won 76-58

08/23 @Wash, Mystics won 74-64

08/28 @Atl, Mystics won 85-80

 

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These teams finished tied with .500 records in the Eastern Conference, but arrived there by very different routes. Washington were a ‘win two here, lose three there’ kind of team all season long. They’d fight out a few results, then lose their way for a while, then remember what they needed to do to win games again. Just to make it this far has to be considered a success for Mike Thibault and his squad, considering the disastrous couple of years under Trudi Lacey that preceded this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta started the year 10-1, and then dropped into something resembling freefall. For those of you who can do basic math, you’ll be able to calculate that they went 7-16 over the remainder of the season. Injuries hit them hard, and it was a struggle to overcome them enough to regain real form in the second half of the year – plus not everyone is back. Both these teams are somehow predictably unpredictable, which makes foretelling how their series is going to play out rather tricky.

 

Thibault has turned the Mystics into a solid team this year. You can see from the stats above that they’re pretty consistently mediocre – which isn’t a criticism. They’ve lifted themselves to being middle-of-the-pack at most aspects of the game. They play decent team defense, they can hit shots from outside, they can draw fouls on penetration – but they’re also prone to cold streaks, occasional breakdowns defensively, and becoming painfully static on offense. They work hard for each other, but you’re never quite sure where their offense is going to come from. Will Ivory Latta or Monique Currie get hot from the perimeter? Is this a random night where Kia Vaughn or Crystal Langhorne finds some rhythm inside? Will their young bench group lead to the offense disintegrating or energise the team and keep the starters on the bench? They’ve pieced things together this season from game to game, finding the hot hand wherever it is, and clawing out wins. Their depth and multiple potential scorers makes it hard to plan to stop them, because you can’t focus on a particular player or two, but it also means they don’t have a true go-to option. They’re reliant on someone stepping up on any given night.

 

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2013 WNBA Playoff Previews: Eastern Conference First Round – Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever

 

By the Numbers (over entire regular season):

 

Chicago (24-10) vs Indiana (16-18)

 

Points scored per 100 possessions: 102.08 (3rd in WNBA) – 95.37 (8th)

Points conceded per 100 possessions: 94.95 (4th) – 95.27 (5th)

Rebounding percentage: .525 (1st) – .503 (5th)

 

Season series between the teams: Indiana won 3-1

06/22 @Ind, Sky won 71-61

08/03 @Ind, Fever won 79-58

08/06 @Chi, Fever won 64-58

09/06 @Chi, Fever won 82-77

 

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It seemed only appropriate to start here. For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you’ve seen me talking about how interesting this matchup could be since sometime in June. Here we finally are in September, and I got what I wanted. The reasons this clash is so fascinating are pretty obvious. The Sky have been the best team in the Eastern Conference for most of the season (once Atlanta’s smoking hot start cooled off dramatically). They’ve got the player who reclaimed the ‘Best Center in the World’ crown this season in the paint, and the runaway Rookie of the Year, both of whom have been touted as MVP candidates. But they’ve literally never been here before. In their eighth year of existence, this is the franchise’s first visit to the postseason. In the other corner, we have the reigning champs. The Fever brought back virtually every meaningful piece from their title run last year, but a ridiculous run of injuries led to a difficult season where it sometimes looked like they’d struggle to even reach the playoffs. They eventually made it in, albeit with a losing record. But they’ve been here, done it, bought the T-shirt and won the ring. And they’re healthier now than they’ve been practically all season. So who triumphs – the experienced campaigners, or the young upstarts?

 

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WNBA Today, 09/16/2013: Regular season ends as Mystics take #3 seed and Fever happily settle for #4

 

Sunday saw the conclusion to the WNBA’s 2013 regular season, with a surprising amount still to be decided. There were some minor questions around home-court advantage in theoretical WNBA Finals matchups, but the main issue remaining was in the Eastern Conference playoff race. With the #3 and #4 seeds still to be decided, the matchups in the first-round were also still up in the air. And there was still a chance that Indiana and Washington could finish off their games, and be left waiting around for the Atlanta result to decide their fate. It was a strange state of flux to be sitting in, heading into the final day of the season.

 

Indiana Fever 80 @ Connecticut Sun 82

  • Playing in the first game of the day, the Fever made the first conspicuous move in relation to deciding the seeding for the Eastern playoffs. If you want to be generous, you could say that their decisions suggested that they didn’t mind whether they faced Chicago or Atlanta in the first-round. After all, neither a win or a loss would definitively decide their opposition. But more accurately, it seemed like they wanted the Sky. Tamika Catchings took the day off to rest a sore back (I’ll resist making the standard joke about how it was caused by having to carry this team all season); Briann January sat out to rest a sore shoulder; and Shavonte Zellous was excused to attend a funeral. The Zellous issue was presumably legitimate, but if they really wanted to win this game, Catchings and January undoubtedly would’ve played. It left the Fever with just seven healthy bodies, and a distinctly makeshift lineup.

 

  • The moves made plenty of sense for Indiana. While Chicago have clearly been the best team in the East this season, the Fever have a great record against them over the years and went 3-1 against them this season. It also made sense in planning for the future, because a loss would give them a strong chance of the #5 overall pick in next year’s draft, while a win might move them down that order. If they were happy to play the Sky instead of the Dream, you could argue the players should’ve ‘rested’ for more than just this one game.

 

  • Of course, Indiana had a decent chance to win anyway. All of Connecticut’s injuries had them down to seven players as well, with Tan White the latest casualty due to a broken finger. And while you can rest as many players as you like, once you take the court instincts tend to kick in. No one’s going out on the floor playing to lose.

 

  • The reason I didn’t expect Indiana to rest so many players was the return of Katie Douglas. This was just her second game back after missing almost the entire season with a back problem, and it seemed like they’d want her to rebuild chemistry with the other key players on the roster. Clearly they didn’t think that was a big deal, presumably due to the number of years Douglas has already played with most of these teammates. There were some communication issues during this game, most noticeably between Douglas and Karima Christmas, where switches and defensive rotations weren’t particularly smooth. While she’s been watching from the sidelines all season, turning that into movement on the floor is very different, and Douglas needs to get up to speed very quickly. It’s a transition for Christmas right now as well, because she’s being asked to play some power forward after Indiana were forced to release Jessica Breland due to Douglas’s return. Christmas has been playing small forward all season, and while the amount of switching within Indiana’s defense means she’s had practice sliding inside, it’s not quite the same thing. Her help instincts and rotation moves aren’t quite those of a player used to playing in the paint.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/15/2013: Lynx seal WNBA’s best record yet again by beating Sky; tributes paid to Warrior Princess

 

Considering how many meaningless games we tend to have to sit through at the end of regular seasons – in all sports – the WNBA schedulers couldn’t have scripted last night much better. A virtual playoff between the top two teams in the league for home-court advantage throughout the postseason, then a fond farewell to a legend overshadowing the terrible game that completed the evening. That’s a pretty good penultimate night for the regular season schedule.

 

Chicago came into Minnesota having had to work pretty hard to bring meaning to the encounter. Despite sealing the #1 seed in the East some time ago, Pokey Chatman has continued to play her stars for heavy minutes in the interest of building momentum heading into the playoffs, and maybe grabbing home-court over the West as well. Most recently, that included a win over Atlanta on Friday night where Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles played a combined 76 minutes and 34 seconds. Minnesota is not where you want to be flying on the second half of a tiring back-to-back. 14-2 at home coming into this game, the Lynx have continued to roll down the stretch, with the usual string of victories interrupted only by a one-point loss to Los Angeles on Thursday. Both teams had their regular lineups to start the game and no new injuries.

 

As is frequently the case, the matchups are interesting when we see cross-conference games, because these teams don’t run into each other very often. Minnesota primarily used Rebekkah Brunson on Delle Donne, and the Lynx forward did about as good a job as you can do. She was physical with the rookie, and stayed right in her face. Delle Done still hit some ridiculously tough jumpers in the first half, but she wasn’t getting anything easy.

 

With Delle Donne hiding as much as possible on the limited offensive threat of Janel McCarville, that left Swin Cash to try to cover Maya Moore. Cash did as well as she could, and her size and strength largely wiped out the occasional post-ups Moore has been running in the second half of the season. But Moore’s younger and more agile, and found some room to shoot around the perimeter to play a central part in Minnesota’s offense.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/14/2013: Friday night resolves nothing as WNBA decisions go to final weekend

 

There’s an awful lot to cover in the closing days of the regular season for those of us who write about the entire WNBA. While continuing to follow the remaining games, there are end-of-season wrap-ups, playoff previews, and award articles on top of the usual stuff. And the teams aren’t making it any easier. On the antepenultimate day of the regular season we had four games last night, and three of them had at least some influence on the playoff picture. Yet resolved exactly nothing. So we’re going to try to keep the individual game coverage brief(ish), and then detail the remaining issues to be decided at the end of the article. You can skip to the ‘What it all Means’ section if you don’t want to hear about what happened last night.

 

New York Liberty 63 @ Indiana Fever 66

  • Indiana opened the evening in a flat tie with Washington for the #3 seed in the East, with two games remaining. But that was overshadowed by the return of Katie Douglas, who’d missed virtually the entire season with a back problem. As covered in this space before, while getting Douglas back for the playoffs was a very nice boost, by rule they were required to release hardship exception signing Jessica Breland when Douglas returned. This would be the first test of whether the gain of Douglas outweighed being down to Jasmine Hassell as their only backup post. Douglas went straight into the starting lineup, replacing Karima Christmas, while New York were still without star guard Cappie Pondexter. Playing for nothing besides lottery positioning (which could only be improved by losing), there was no need to rush Pondexter back.

 

  • It wasn’t long before the issues around losing Breland were highlighted. Erlana Larkins picked up two fouls in the opening 99 seconds, and had to go to the bench. That brought Hassell in, and in her 10 minutes of action over the course of the evening she did little beyond illustrating why she’s barely played for most of the season. We also saw Tamika Catchings forced to play some center later in the game, and Christmas having to slide over for occasional spells at power forward. When those lineups were in, the Fever looked desperately small. New York had some foul trouble of their own, which kept them smaller than usual in the paint at times, but they still punished Indiana inside for long stretches. Larkins and Catchings have been fighting their tails off all season, and they did most of the work as a pair during the Fever’s eventual run to a title last season. But the likes of Sylvia Fowles and Erika de Souza are likely to be in their way in the postseason, and this game showed how much danger a modicum of foul trouble can cause for Indiana. It’s going to be an awkward balancing act for the Fever in the playoffs.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/13/2013: Sparks hold off Lynx as appetites whetted by spicy preview of potential Western Finals

 

Most of the major issues may have been decided already, but there’s still a little spice left in the WNBA’s regular season, as last night illustrated. There was an appetiser before the game everyone was looking forward to, but we’re going to skip straight to the main course. Details of the early game can be found lower down, for those who requite strict chronological order or who really enjoy their starters.

 

The main event saw the fifth and final meeting – in the regular season – of the Western Conference’s top two. Heading into the season, most saw a clear top three in the West, but Phoenix’s issues left Minnesota and Los Angeles to break away. The Sparks have slipped up a little more frequently over the course of the year, so the Lynx had already secured the #1 seed in the West before last night, but bragging rights were still on the line. And barring a first-round upset, these two teams will be seeing each other again in almost exactly two weeks’ time in the Western Conference Finals.

 

Both teams came in healthy, with their usual starting lineups, and almost inevitably it was Minnesota who got off to the quicker start. The perimeter of Lindsey Harding, Kristi Toliver and Alana Beard has matchup problems against the Lynx, and we’ve seen this several times before. They’re significantly smaller than Minnesota’s dangerous trio of Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Maya Moore, so guarding them is immediately difficult. It’s made even more so by the way Minnesota have been working on developing a post attack with their wings this season. That said, most of the early damage was done by Moore on Beard, which ought to be one of the safer pairings for LA. You still wonder if the Sparks might not be better off bringing either Harding or Toliver off the bench, and opening with a bigger wing like Jenna O’Hea or Marissa Coleman against the Lynx starters. Once Monica Wright comes into the game for Augustus or Moore, the Harding/Toliver pairing can cope – they both have someone on the floor they can cover. It’s just that initial lineup that gives them problems.

 

With Janel McCarville also happily taking and hitting the open jumpers Candace Parker was letting her have, Minnesota went out to a 15-8 lead midway through the first quarter. That quietly extended to 21-10 because LA had no offense besides Parker. She was effective backing down various defenders and finishing or even hitting a jump shot or two, and abused Devereaux Peters once the young post came off the bench for Minnesota. But absolutely no one was offering her any help for the Sparks. They were just watching her work, and missing shots when she occasionally gave up the ball.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/12/2013: Narrow victories for Sun and Sky as Delle Donne adds another buzzer-beater to her highlight reel

 

Last night’s pair of WNBA games had very little meaning in the grand scheme of things, but still produced tight, exciting finishes. What more can you ask for while teams are playing out the end of the regular season?

 

We opened in Connecticut, where Atlanta were the visitors. Both teams had the expected players available, i.e. Atlanta with everyone bar power forward Sancho Lyttle, who’s looking less and less likely to return for the playoffs; Connecticut with Charles, Lawson, Hightower and Faris out, leaving eight in uniform. The Sun had shown in their last couple of games that both the +/- statistics and the eye-test that suggested they’ve been better with Charles on the bench this year might have some truth to them. Atlanta had a couple of solid wins to start September, then went right back to looking shaky again. Connecticut are playing for pride and each other; Atlanta want to pick up their form heading into the postseason.

 

One word showed up an awful lot of times in my notes from this game. ‘Turnover’, often with an expletive or something like ‘crappy’ attached. Atlanta were staggeringly sloppy all night long. They started out the game committing several turnovers by trying to make the extra pass when they should’ve just kept going to the rim or taken the open shot. That’s okay. For a team that sometimes fails to move the ball enough, you can live with them making a few mistakes by trying to move it too much. But as the night wore on they were just making error after error, with passes flying out of bounds or straight to Sun players. They can’t expect to win playing like this.

 

Of course, they were playing Connecticut, so the Dream stayed in the game anyway. Atlanta led by as many as nine points in the opening period, but with useful production from Kayla Pedersen and Iziane Castro Marques off the bench Connecticut eased back into the game. This is how the Sun have been playing since Charles was shut down for the season. They’re working hard, playing as a team, and competing. They go through stretches where you wonder where their next point is going to come from, because there just aren’t that many obvious scoring options left on the team, but they move the ball around and scratch out enough to stay alive. Their last three games have probably been more impressive than the first 29. Atlanta led 37-36 at halftime.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/11/2013: Playoff contenders finalised as Mystics make it in; Mercury and Lynx wins cement West seeding

 

While they largely confirmed things that had become inevitable, the combination of last night’s three WNBA results cemented several elements of the upcoming playoffs. We now know exactly what’s coming in the Western Conference, and there’s only one unknown holding up the East. We might see a lot of players grabbing some rest over the next few days.

 

Washington Mystics 69 @ Indiana Fever 67

  • Washington came into this game still needing a win to confirm their playoff participation. Undoubtedly Mike Thibault and his squad were as aware as anyone that New York were incredibly unlikely to run the table and make them require that win, but earning your way into the postseason with a victory would feel much sweeter than waiting for the Liberty to lose. Sitting just one game ahead of the Mystics prior to this game, Indiana could claim at least the #3 seed with a win, but would drop into a tie with Washington if they lost. Their outstanding record against Chicago makes you wonder if they might not prefer the #4, but playing well and winning games heading into the playoffs was clearly worth more to them than trying to finagle the matchups. Otherwise Tamika Catchings would’ve taken the night off, and Erin Phillips wouldn’t have returned so quickly from her eye injury. They were still without Katie Douglas, however, despite reports that she was virtually ready to return.

 

  • There’s one important element to the Douglas situation that seems to have gone largely overlooked. Remember way back at the start of the season when Indiana were allowed to keep 12 players due to injuries, without ever seeming to establish who the ‘exception’ 12th was? Well at some point, it became clear that the 12th player was Jessica Breland. Unfortunately, the Fever appear to have painted themselves into a corner. Breland has become their only viable backup post behind Catchings and Erlana Larkins, with Jessica Davenport injured and Jasmine Hassell barely ever used. But their roster’s healthy enough now that when (and if) Douglas returns, Breland would have to be immediately released because the ‘hardship exception’ would no longer apply. So while Douglas has been their second-best player for several years, having her back for the postseason would mean going into the postseason with only Hassell to spell Catchings and Larkins (or Karima Christmas sliding over in an incredibly small lineup, in a role she hasn’t played all season). It’s an unfortunate Catch 22. Chicago avoided something similar by waiving Avery Warley 10 days ago, giving them time to cut someone else and re-sign her for the playoffs. Maybe Indiana should’ve done the same, but it’s too late now (there’s a 10-day waiting period between cutting someone and being able to re-sign them, and there are now fewer than 10 days left in the season). Keeping Breland may have become more important to Indiana than adding a likely half-fit Douglas to the playoff roster.

 

  • But back to last night’s game. Washington started well, looking for Kia Vaughn inside to use her height advantage on the Indiana posts, and penetrating far too often for Indiana head coach Lin Dunn’s liking. The Mystics get themselves into trouble sometimes by settling for jump shots, especially when there’s minimal ball movement before they just fire away. This was better than we’d seen in several recent performances.

 

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WNBA Today, 09/10/2013: Mercury road win and Mystics’ meanderings overshadowed by record-breaking Riquna

 

Sunday was an odd day of WNBA basketball. Three games, two of which had at least some relevance to playoff qualification and positioning – and yet by the end of the day the only game anyone was talking about was the apparently irrelevant matchup that closed out the weekend. We’ll stick to chronological order as usual, and build to the big finish just like a certain diminutive Shock guard.

 

Phoenix Mercury 79 @ Atlanta Dream 71

  • With Seattle dropping another game to Minnesota on Saturday night (and looking distinctly unlikely to change that pattern when they play the Lynx again on Tuesday), Phoenix’s hold on the #3 seed in the West was looking increasingly secure. At this point, their run-in is more about trying to build chemistry, and become more comfortable playing in Russ Pennell’s system. They came into this game 6-2 since he arrived, but that record had been pieced together against some weak and undermanned teams, and masked some pretty shaky performances. Going on the road to face a playoff team who’d put up some decent performances recently looked like being a more legitimate test. Three straight wins for Atlanta had shown some hints of the old Dream performances from early in the season, when they broke out to a 10-1 start. Now it was a matter of trying to keep that momentum rolling – plus they were still playing to maintain their hold on the #2 seed in the East, ahead of Indiana and Washington.

 

  • Phoenix tried to run that set play off the opening tip again, where Brittney Griner wins it, then Briana Gilbreath sets a pick on the opposing center, and Griner rolls right to the hoop. It basically worked – Atlanta apparently hadn’t bothered preparing for it – but Griner missed the finish inside.

 

  • Angel McCoughtry hit a couple of deep jumpers early on, then reverted to her standard pattern of bricking them. She also provided yet another example of the half-assed defense that drives me crazy. While she’s nowhere near as good in the halfcourt as her reputation would suggest – she freelances constantly for steals, which is fine when it’s part of the defense, but she gets beaten easily off the dribble far too frequently – it’s the abject laziness that’s horrifying. She’ll miss a shot or a layup, and then just drift back towards the other end of the floor whenever she feels like it, while her teammates play 4-on-5. Sometimes she’s not even complaining to an official about a call – she just can’t be bothered to work back. It’s pathetic, especially for a player who’s supposed to be a leader and a superstar. Move. She’ll happily run the floor hard when there’s an opportunity for her to score on the end of it; she just can’t be bothered when it’s required to help her team play defense. Embarrassing. Spoiler alert – McCoughtry won’t be on my All-Defense Team when I pick it in about a week.

 

  • On a far more positive note, the first quarter of this game saw the return of Penny Taylor from her second knee surgery, playing her first game since mid-July. She was clearly rusty, but getting back such an important and talented player could be just the boost the Mercury need heading into the playoffs.

 

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